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Économie·Venezuela

La production vénézuélienne de pétrole brut atteindra-t-elle __ barils par jour en 2026 ?

Market icon
Économie·Venezuela

La production vénézuélienne de pétrole brut atteindra-t-elle __ barils par jour en 2026 ?

$33,986 Vol.

Feb 28, 2027
Polymarket

$33,986 Vol.

Polymarket

1 million

$0 Vol.

84%

1,1 million

$12,362 Vol.

71%

1,2 million

$0 Vol.

38%

1,3 million

$5,614 Vol.

27%

1,4 million

$16,009 Vol.

13%

1,5 million

$0 Vol.

11%

1,7 million

$0 Vol.

7%

2 millions

$0 Vol.

5%

This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month. The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row. This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Venezuela's crude oil production has climbed to approximately 900,000–1.02 million barrels per day in early 2026 per EIA and OPEC data, up from 800,000 bpd in January amid U.S. license expansions for Chevron and Shell following political shifts after the January leadership capture. This fragile recovery, fueled by high global oil prices and sanction relief, reflects improved exports but faces headwinds from dilapidated infrastructure, underinvestment, and OPEC+ quota constraints. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices strong odds for breaching 1 million bpd in any 2026 month, with diminishing probabilities for higher thresholds like 1.1–1.4 million due to multi-year capex needs estimated at tens of billions. Key catalysts include April OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, and potential quota adjustments.

Venezuela's crude oil production has climbed to approximately 900,000–1.02 million barrels per day in early 2026 per EIA and OPEC data, up from 800,000 bpd in January amid U.S. license expansions for Chevron and Shell following political shifts after the January leadership capture. This fragile recovery, fueled by high global oil prices and sanction relief, reflects improved exports but faces headwinds from dilapidated infrastructure, underinvestment, and OPEC+ quota constraints. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices strong odds for breaching 1 million bpd in any 2026 month, with diminishing probabilities for higher thresholds like 1.1–1.4 million due to multi-year capex needs estimated at tens of billions. Key catalysts include April OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, and potential quota adjustments.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if Venezuelan crude oil production is greater than or equal to the listed number of barrels per day for any month in 2026, according to the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report published for each month. The resolution source for this market will be the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, published each month in reference to the previous month at https://www.opec.org/monthly-oil-market-report.html. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 5-7 DoC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d” under the column for the relevant month and the “Venezuela” row. This market will resolve as soon as Venezuelan crude oil production is reported to be greater than or equal to the listed number. If the listed number has not been reached for any month by the release of the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 (expected to be released in January 2027), this market will resolve to “No”. If no Opec Monthly Oil Market Report for the reference month December 2026 has been published by February 28, 2027, ET and the listed number has not been reached for any prior month, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market reports crude oil production in thousands of barrels per day. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Venezuela's crude oil production has climbed to approximately 900,000–1.02 million barrels per day in early 2026 per EIA and OPEC data, up from 800,000 bpd in January amid U.S. license expansions for Chevron and Shell following political shifts after the January leadership capture. This fragile recovery, fueled by high global oil prices and sanction relief, reflects improved exports but faces headwinds from dilapidated infrastructure, underinvestment, and OPEC+ quota constraints. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices strong odds for breaching 1 million bpd in any 2026 month, with diminishing probabilities for higher thresholds like 1.1–1.4 million due to multi-year capex needs estimated at tens of billions. Key catalysts include April OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, and potential quota adjustments.

Venezuela's crude oil production has climbed to approximately 900,000–1.02 million barrels per day in early 2026 per EIA and OPEC data, up from 800,000 bpd in January amid U.S. license expansions for Chevron and Shell following political shifts after the January leadership capture. This fragile recovery, fueled by high global oil prices and sanction relief, reflects improved exports but faces headwinds from dilapidated infrastructure, underinvestment, and OPEC+ quota constraints. Trader consensus on Polymarket prices strong odds for breaching 1 million bpd in any 2026 month, with diminishing probabilities for higher thresholds like 1.1–1.4 million due to multi-year capex needs estimated at tens of billions. Key catalysts include April OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, and potential quota adjustments.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« La production vénézuélienne de pétrole brut atteindra-t-elle __ barils par jour en 2026 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 8 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 1 million » à 84%, suivi de « 1,1 million » à 71%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 84¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 84% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « La production vénézuélienne de pétrole brut atteindra-t-elle __ barils par jour en 2026 ? » a généré $34K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jan 7, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « La production vénézuélienne de pétrole brut atteindra-t-elle __ barils par jour en 2026 ? », parcourez les 8 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « La production vénézuélienne de pétrole brut atteindra-t-elle __ barils par jour en 2026 ? » est « 1 million » à 84%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 84% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 1,1 million » à 71%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « La production vénézuélienne de pétrole brut atteindra-t-elle __ barils par jour en 2026 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.