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Géopolitique·Présidence Trump

Les États-Unis vont-ils envahir le Venezuela par... ?

Market icon
Géopolitique·Présidence Trump

Les États-Unis vont-ils envahir le Venezuela par... ?

$14,101,968 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$14,101,968 Vol.

Polymarket

31 mars

$2,812,392 Vol.

<1%

31 décembre

$156,693 Vol.

14%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.U.S.-Venezuela tensions stem from the disputed July 2024 presidential election, where Nicolás Maduro claimed victory amid fraud allegations; the Biden administration and allies rejected the results, imposing fresh sanctions in September on Maduro allies and oil entities to pressure electoral transparency. Diplomatic efforts, including stalled Barbados talks on fair elections, dominate over military rhetoric, with no verifiable signs of U.S. troop deployments or invasion planning. Border clashes with Guyana over Essequibo add friction, but U.S. support remains limited to aid for Guyana rather than direct intervention. Upcoming regional summits and U.S. lame-duck congressional sessions could influence sanctions or diplomacy, though constitutional requirements for war authorization pose high barriers to escalation. Trader consensus reflects low invasion odds absent a major provocation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volume
$14,101,968
Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026
Marché ouvert
Nov 3, 2025, 6:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between September 6 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025, and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.U.S.-Venezuela tensions stem from the disputed July 2024 presidential election, where Nicolás Maduro claimed victory amid fraud allegations; the Biden administration and allies rejected the results, imposing fresh sanctions in September on Maduro allies and oil entities to pressure electoral transparency. Diplomatic efforts, including stalled Barbados talks on fair elections, dominate over military rhetoric, with no verifiable signs of U.S. troop deployments or invasion planning. Border clashes with Guyana over Essequibo add friction, but U.S. support remains limited to aid for Guyana rather than direct intervention. Upcoming regional summits and U.S. lame-duck congressional sessions could influence sanctions or diplomacy, though constitutional requirements for war authorization pose high barriers to escalation. Trader consensus reflects low invasion odds absent a major provocation.

U.S.-Venezuela tensions stem from the disputed July 2024 presidential election, where Nicolás Maduro claimed victory amid fraud allegations; the Biden administration and allies rejected the results, imposing fresh sanctions in September on Maduro allies and oil entities to pressure electoral transparency. Diplomatic efforts, including stalled Barbados talks on fair elections, dominate over military rhetoric, with no verifiable signs of U.S. troop deployments or invasion planning. Border clashes with Guyana over Essequibo add friction, but U.S. support remains limited to aid for Guyana rather than direct intervention. Upcoming regional summits and U.S. lame-duck congressional sessions could influence sanctions or diplomacy, though constitutional requirements for war authorization pose high barriers to escalation. Trader consensus reflects low invasion odds absent a major provocation.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Les États-Unis vont-ils envahir le Venezuela par... ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 4 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « 31 décembre » à 14%, suivi de « 31 mars » à 0%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 14¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 14% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Les États-Unis vont-ils envahir le Venezuela par... ? » a généré $14.1 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Sep 6, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Les États-Unis vont-ils envahir le Venezuela par... ? », parcourez les 4 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Les États-Unis vont-ils envahir le Venezuela par... ? » est « 31 décembre » à 14%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 14% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « 31 mars » à 0%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Les États-Unis vont-ils envahir le Venezuela par... ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.