Trader consensus implies an 84% probability against US annexation of any territory in 2026, driven by the complete absence of official proposals, congressional bills, executive actions, or diplomatic escalations supporting territorial expansion in recent months. No verifiable developments—from the Biden administration, Congress, or military posture—have surfaced in the past 30 days, with US foreign policy centered on alliances like NATO, sanctions, and de-escalation in conflicts rather than sovereignty claims. Constitutional barriers, including Senate ratification of treaties by two-thirds vote and international law prohibitions, combined with historical dormancy since the 1890s, reinforce this positioning. Only extraordinary scenarios like major geopolitical ruptures could shift odds, but none loom on the horizon.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourOui
$18,389 Vol.
$18,389 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Oui
$18,389 Vol.
$18,389 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus implies an 84% probability against US annexation of any territory in 2026, driven by the complete absence of official proposals, congressional bills, executive actions, or diplomatic escalations supporting territorial expansion in recent months. No verifiable developments—from the Biden administration, Congress, or military posture—have surfaced in the past 30 days, with US foreign policy centered on alliances like NATO, sanctions, and de-escalation in conflicts rather than sovereignty claims. Constitutional barriers, including Senate ratification of treaties by two-thirds vote and international law prohibitions, combined with historical dormancy since the 1890s, reinforce this positioning. Only extraordinary scenarios like major geopolitical ruptures could shift odds, but none loom on the horizon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 6, 2026, 1:41 PM ET
Volume
$18,389Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 6, 2026, 1:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus implies an 84% probability against US annexation of any territory in 2026, driven by the complete absence of official proposals, congressional bills, executive actions, or diplomatic escalations supporting territorial expansion in recent months. No verifiable developments—from the Biden administration, Congress, or military posture—have surfaced in the past 30 days, with US foreign policy centered on alliances like NATO, sanctions, and de-escalation in conflicts rather than sovereignty claims. Constitutional barriers, including Senate ratification of treaties by two-thirds vote and international law prohibitions, combined with historical dormancy since the 1890s, reinforce this positioning. Only extraordinary scenarios like major geopolitical ruptures could shift odds, but none loom on the horizon.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially annexes any territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Annexation is defined as an official declaration or legal act by the US government claiming sovereignty over territory they were not claiming at the time of this market's creation.
Qualifying examples of annexation include the Louisiana Purchase, however instances where settlers claim administrative control over land without a formal annexation will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$18,389Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 6, 2026, 1:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies an 84% probability against US annexation of any territory in 2026, driven by the complete absence of official proposals, congressional bills, executive actions, or diplomatic escalations supporting territorial expansion in recent months. No verifiable developments—from the Biden administration, Congress, or military posture—have surfaced in the past 30 days, with US foreign policy centered on alliances like NATO, sanctions, and de-escalation in conflicts rather than sovereignty claims. Constitutional barriers, including Senate ratification of treaties by two-thirds vote and international law prohibitions, combined with historical dormancy since the 1890s, reinforce this positioning. Only extraordinary scenarios like major geopolitical ruptures could shift odds, but none loom on the horizon.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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