Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 68.5% implied probability for TSA passenger throughput on March 29 falling in the 2.6M-2.8M range, closely tracking recent daily volumes averaging 2.5M-2.7M through March 26—including 2.64M on Sunday March 23 and 2.87M on Saturday March 22—despite severe staffing strains from the ongoing partial government shutdown. Over 450 TSA officers have quit amid unpaid furloughs and 40-50% callout rates, fueling record four-hour-plus wait times at major hubs like Atlanta and Houston, yet resilient spring break tailwinds and pre-Easter travel demand (projected 2.8M daily average March-April) sustain elevated screening levels. The 22.5% odds on 2.8M-3.0M reflect weekend peaks, while lower bins account for potential cancellations; resolution hinges on TSA's Friday update for March 28 and any DHS funding breakthroughs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour2.6M-2.8M 75%
2.8M-3.0M 36%
<2.6M 9%
3.0M-3.2M <1%
$15,356 Vol.
$15,356 Vol.
<2.6M
11%
2.6M-2.8M
72%
2.8M-3.0M
23%
3.0M-3.2M
1%
3.2M-3.4M
<1%
>3.4M
<1%
2.6M-2.8M 75%
2.8M-3.0M 36%
<2.6M 9%
3.0M-3.2M <1%
$15,356 Vol.
$15,356 Vol.
<2.6M
11%
2.6M-2.8M
72%
2.8M-3.0M
23%
3.0M-3.2M
1%
3.2M-3.4M
<1%
>3.4M
<1%
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Marché ouvert : Mar 23, 2026, 5:55 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Resolution Source
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 68.5% implied probability for TSA passenger throughput on March 29 falling in the 2.6M-2.8M range, closely tracking recent daily volumes averaging 2.5M-2.7M through March 26—including 2.64M on Sunday March 23 and 2.87M on Saturday March 22—despite severe staffing strains from the ongoing partial government shutdown. Over 450 TSA officers have quit amid unpaid furloughs and 40-50% callout rates, fueling record four-hour-plus wait times at major hubs like Atlanta and Houston, yet resilient spring break tailwinds and pre-Easter travel demand (projected 2.8M daily average March-April) sustain elevated screening levels. The 22.5% odds on 2.8M-3.0M reflect weekend peaks, while lower bins account for potential cancellations; resolution hinges on TSA's Friday update for March 28 and any DHS funding breakthroughs.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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