Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 76.5% implied probability to 2.6 million-2.8 million TSA passengers screened on March 27, aligning closely with March 26's actual throughput of 2.72 million and the prior week's range of 2.19 million-2.64 million. Peak spring break demand—projected at a record 2.8 million daily flyers through April—has been constrained by acute TSA staffing shortages from a 41-day DHS funding lapse, featuring 40-50% callout rates, hundreds of resignations, and multi-hour checkpoint delays at major hubs. The Senate's March 27 funding bill provides no same-day operational lift, sustaining subdued volumes despite robust consumer travel sentiment, with official data release imminent as a key high-frequency economic indicator.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour2.6M-2.8M 86%
2.8M-3.0M 19%
<2.6M 4.2%
3.0M-3.2M 3.0%
$22,980 Vol.
$22,980 Vol.
<2.6M
4%
2.6M-2.8M
77%
2.8M-3.0M
19%
3.0M-3.2M
3%
3.2M-3.4M
<1%
>3.4M
<1%
2.6M-2.8M 86%
2.8M-3.0M 19%
<2.6M 4.2%
3.0M-3.2M 3.0%
$22,980 Vol.
$22,980 Vol.
<2.6M
4%
2.6M-2.8M
77%
2.8M-3.0M
19%
3.0M-3.2M
3%
3.2M-3.4M
<1%
>3.4M
<1%
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Marché ouvert : Mar 23, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
Resolution Source
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumesResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 76.5% implied probability to 2.6 million-2.8 million TSA passengers screened on March 27, aligning closely with March 26's actual throughput of 2.72 million and the prior week's range of 2.19 million-2.64 million. Peak spring break demand—projected at a record 2.8 million daily flyers through April—has been constrained by acute TSA staffing shortages from a 41-day DHS funding lapse, featuring 40-50% callout rates, hundreds of resignations, and multi-hour checkpoint delays at major hubs. The Senate's March 27 funding bill provides no same-day operational lift, sustaining subdued volumes despite robust consumer travel sentiment, with official data release imminent as a key high-frequency economic indicator.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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