Trader consensus favors no change in the UK Prime Minister by end-2026 at 35%, reflecting Keir Starmer's secure Labour majority until the 2029 general election absent a snap election or internal no-confidence vote. Recent by-election defeats for Labour, including clatterbridge and Runcorn, alongside public backlash to the autumn budget's tax hikes and welfare cuts, have intensified leadership speculation, boosting Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner's odds to 20.5% as a union-favored successor. Ed Miliband's 10.6% position ties to his influential net zero role amid energy debates, while Nigel Farage's 8.6% captures Reform UK's polling rise to near 25%, hinting at coalition leverage in a hung parliament scenario. Upcoming local elections in May 2026 loom as potential catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLe prochain Premier ministre britannique en 2026 ?
Le prochain Premier ministre britannique en 2026 ?
Aucun prochain PM en 2026 35%
Angela Rayner 21%
Ed Miliband 10.6%
Nigel Farage 8.6%
$3,498,862 Vol.
$3,498,862 Vol.
Aucun prochain PM en 2026
35%
Angela Rayner
21%
Ed Miliband
11%
Nigel Farage
9%
Wes Streeting
6%
Yvette Cooper
4%
Rupert Lowe
4%
Andy Burnham
3%
Shabana Mahmood
2%
Al Carns
1%
Lucy Powell
1%
David Lammy
1%
Rachel Reeves
1%
Kemi Badenoch
<1%
Darren Jones
<1%
Boris Johnson
<1%
Ed Davey
<1%
Bridget Phillipson
<1%
Robert Jenrick
<1%
James Cleverly
<1%
Aucun prochain PM en 2026 35%
Angela Rayner 21%
Ed Miliband 10.6%
Nigel Farage 8.6%
$3,498,862 Vol.
$3,498,862 Vol.
Aucun prochain PM en 2026
35%
Angela Rayner
21%
Ed Miliband
11%
Nigel Farage
9%
Wes Streeting
6%
Yvette Cooper
4%
Rupert Lowe
4%
Andy Burnham
3%
Shabana Mahmood
2%
Al Carns
1%
Lucy Powell
1%
David Lammy
1%
Rachel Reeves
1%
Kemi Badenoch
<1%
Darren Jones
<1%
Boris Johnson
<1%
Ed Davey
<1%
Bridget Phillipson
<1%
Robert Jenrick
<1%
James Cleverly
<1%
To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Feb 5, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the United Kingdom Monarch. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next PM in 2026”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United Kingdom; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors no change in the UK Prime Minister by end-2026 at 35%, reflecting Keir Starmer's secure Labour majority until the 2029 general election absent a snap election or internal no-confidence vote. Recent by-election defeats for Labour, including clatterbridge and Runcorn, alongside public backlash to the autumn budget's tax hikes and welfare cuts, have intensified leadership speculation, boosting Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner's odds to 20.5% as a union-favored successor. Ed Miliband's 10.6% position ties to his influential net zero role amid energy debates, while Nigel Farage's 8.6% captures Reform UK's polling rise to near 25%, hinting at coalition leverage in a hung parliament scenario. Upcoming local elections in May 2026 loom as potential catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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