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Prochain leader hors du pouvoir avant 2027 ?

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Prochain leader hors du pouvoir avant 2027 ?

Dec 31

Dec 31

Orbán - Premier ministre de Hongrie 55%

Díaz-Canel - Président de Cuba 18%

Netanyahu - Premier ministre d’Israël 6.3%

Starmer - Premier ministre britannique 4.7%

Polymarket

$2,743,315 Vol.

Orbán - Premier ministre de Hongrie 55%

Díaz-Canel - Président de Cuba 18%

Netanyahu - Premier ministre d’Israël 6.3%

Starmer - Premier ministre britannique 4.7%

Polymarket

$2,743,315 Vol.

Orbán - Premier ministre de Hongrie

$22,262 Vol.

55%

Díaz-Canel - Président de Cuba

$16,258 Vol.

18%

Netanyahu - Premier ministre d’Israël

$572,963 Vol.

6%

Starmer - Premier ministre britannique

$557,561 Vol.

5%

Takaichi - Première ministre du Japon

$276,699 Vol.

3%

Poutine - Président de la Russie

$350,842 Vol.

2%

Petro - Président de la Colombie

$12,796 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Président de l'Ukraine

$11,283 Vol.

1%

Aucun avant 2027

$10,160 Vol.

1%

Trump - Président des États-Unis

$203,958 Vol.

1%

Macron - Président de la France

$68,153 Vol.

1%

Abbas - Président de la Palestine

$58,322 Vol.

1%

Xi - Secrétaire général du PCC

$39,624 Vol.

1%

Sánchez - Premier ministre espagnol

$11,319 Vol.

1%

Newsom - Gouverneur de Californie

$113,329 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Président de la Turquie

$75,740 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - Premier ministre de la France

$40,635 Vol.

1%

Rodríguez - Présidente par intérim du Venezuela

$20,663 Vol.

1%

Milei - Président de l'Argentine

$35,523 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Président du Brésil

$40,102 Vol.

<1%

Sheinbaum - Présidente du Mexique

$64,527 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Président de la Syrie

$28,196 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Dirigeant suprême de la Corée du Nord

$24,997 Vol.

<1%

Merz - Chancelier allemand

$28,784 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Premier ministre australien

$58,620 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the leading candidate at 54.5% to exit power before 2027, fueled by escalating domestic protests—the largest since 2010—sparked last month by his chief of staff's resignation amid a pardon scandal involving a convicted child sex offender, which has eroded Fidesz party support and raised doubts about his hold ahead of the 2026 parliamentary elections. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 17.5%, reflecting persistent economic collapse, nationwide blackouts, and protests amid food shortages and currency devaluation, though his regime shows no immediate signs of collapse before his 2028 term end. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu trails at 6.5%, pressured by the prolonged Gaza conflict, hostage negotiations stalemate, coalition fractures after Benny Gantz's June resignation, and ongoing corruption trials that could trigger snap elections. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer at 4.7% faces early cabinet scandals and budget backlash, while lower odds for others like Japan's Shigeru Ishiba runner-up Sanae Takaichi reflect stable tenures despite regional tensions.

This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,743,315
Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026
Marché ouvert
Mar 2, 2026, 7:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the leading candidate at 54.5% to exit power before 2027, fueled by escalating domestic protests—the largest since 2010—sparked last month by his chief of staff's resignation amid a pardon scandal involving a convicted child sex offender, which has eroded Fidesz party support and raised doubts about his hold ahead of the 2026 parliamentary elections. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 17.5%, reflecting persistent economic collapse, nationwide blackouts, and protests amid food shortages and currency devaluation, though his regime shows no immediate signs of collapse before his 2028 term end. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu trails at 6.5%, pressured by the prolonged Gaza conflict, hostage negotiations stalemate, coalition fractures after Benny Gantz's June resignation, and ongoing corruption trials that could trigger snap elections. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer at 4.7% faces early cabinet scandals and budget backlash, while lower odds for others like Japan's Shigeru Ishiba runner-up Sanae Takaichi reflect stable tenures despite regional tensions.

Trader consensus on Polymarket positions Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán as the leading candidate at 54.5% to exit power before 2027, fueled by escalating domestic protests—the largest since 2010—sparked last month by his chief of staff's resignation amid a pardon scandal involving a convicted child sex offender, which has eroded Fidesz party support and raised doubts about his hold ahead of the 2026 parliamentary elections. Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel follows at 17.5%, reflecting persistent economic collapse, nationwide blackouts, and protests amid food shortages and currency devaluation, though his regime shows no immediate signs of collapse before his 2028 term end. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu trails at 6.5%, pressured by the prolonged Gaza conflict, hostage negotiations stalemate, coalition fractures after Benny Gantz's June resignation, and ongoing corruption trials that could trigger snap elections. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer at 4.7% faces early cabinet scandals and budget backlash, while lower odds for others like Japan's Shigeru Ishiba runner-up Sanae Takaichi reflect stable tenures despite regional tensions.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Prochain leader hors du pouvoir avant 2027 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 25 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Orbán - Premier ministre de Hongrie » à 55%, suivi de « Díaz-Canel - Président de Cuba » à 18%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 55¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 55% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Prochain leader hors du pouvoir avant 2027 ? » a généré $2.7 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Mar 3, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Prochain leader hors du pouvoir avant 2027 ? », parcourez les 25 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Prochain leader hors du pouvoir avant 2027 ? » est « Orbán - Premier ministre de Hongrie » à 55%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 55% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Díaz-Canel - Président de Cuba » à 18%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Prochain leader hors du pouvoir avant 2027 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.