Republican Aaron Flint holds a 65.5% implied probability in the MT-01 House race against Democrat Sam Forstag at 34.5%, reflecting trader assessment of the open seat's underlying Republican tilt in a district Trump carried by double digits in 2024. Late September polling averages show a statistical tie or narrow Flint edge, with recent surveys placing both candidates near 45%. Key recent factors include Flint's Trump endorsement and planned rally, sustained attacks on Forstag's prior lobbying work for groups pushing local sales and property tax measures, and Flint's emphasis on border security and public safety. The Nov. 3 general election features early voting underway, a scheduled debate, and heavy outside spending on both sides in this competitive Western Montana contest.