Incumbent Republican Ann Wagner holds a substantial edge in Missouri's 2nd Congressional District race, backed by her seven-term record, strong fundraising, and the district's underlying Republican lean under the 2022 map now in effect for November. The U.S. Supreme Court blocked a mid-decade GOP redistricting plan in September that would have further strengthened the seat, leaving boundaries that incorporate more suburban St. Louis voters and create modest openings for Democrat Fred Wellman, a retired Army lieutenant colonel emphasizing veterans' issues and affordability. Recent campaign activity has featured Wagner attack ads on transgender policies and Wellman counter-messaging on Wagner's finances and legislative record. A late-September GOP poll showed the race statistically tied, though forecasters continue to rate the contest as likely Republican.