US-Israel airstrikes on Iran, launched March 1 targeting military sites and Supreme Leader Khamenei's compound, have triggered ongoing Iranian retaliatory missile and drone barrages, including two launches toward Israel detected early March 28 with one impact and attacks injuring 12 US troops at Saudi bases. Despite CENTCOM's Operation Epic Fury claiming to have decimated 90% of Iran's ballistic missiles, drones, and naval assets—sinking 30 ships—Iran maintains launches and partial control of the Strait of Hormuz, prompting President Trump's deadline extensions for reopening and stalled 15-point peace talks. With no ceasefire in sight nearly a month in, trader consensus reflects prolonged escalation risks amid diplomatic impasse and potential congressional limits on operations, ahead of further negotiations or Hormuz naval deployments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$178,262 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 29
2%
March 30
3%
March 31
5%
15 avril
23%
30 avril
57%
31 mai
77%
30 juin
77%
$178,262 Vol.
March 29
$21,321 Vol.
2%
March 30
$17,019 Vol.
3%
March 31
$77,463 Vol.
5%
15 avril
$1,645 Vol.
23%
30 avril
$235 Vol.
57%
31 mai
$1,556 Vol.
77%
30 juin
$5 Vol.
77%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israel airstrikes on Iran, launched March 1 targeting military sites and Supreme Leader Khamenei's compound, have triggered ongoing Iranian retaliatory missile and drone barrages, including two launches toward Israel detected early March 28 with one impact and attacks injuring 12 US troops at Saudi bases. Despite CENTCOM's Operation Epic Fury claiming to have decimated 90% of Iran's ballistic missiles, drones, and naval assets—sinking 30 ships—Iran maintains launches and partial control of the Strait of Hormuz, prompting President Trump's deadline extensions for reopening and stalled 15-point peace talks. With no ceasefire in sight nearly a month in, trader consensus reflects prolonged escalation risks amid diplomatic impasse and potential congressional limits on operations, ahead of further negotiations or Hormuz naval deployments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ET
Volume
$178,262Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US-Israel airstrikes on Iran, launched March 1 targeting military sites and Supreme Leader Khamenei's compound, have triggered ongoing Iranian retaliatory missile and drone barrages, including two launches toward Israel detected early March 28 with one impact and attacks injuring 12 US troops at Saudi bases. Despite CENTCOM's Operation Epic Fury claiming to have decimated 90% of Iran's ballistic missiles, drones, and naval assets—sinking 30 ships—Iran maintains launches and partial control of the Strait of Hormuz, prompting President Trump's deadline extensions for reopening and stalled 15-point peace talks. With no ceasefire in sight nearly a month in, trader consensus reflects prolonged escalation risks amid diplomatic impasse and potential congressional limits on operations, ahead of further negotiations or Hormuz naval deployments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$178,262Date de fin
Jun 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 13, 2026, 3:45 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Résultat proposé: No
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: No
US-Israel airstrikes on Iran, launched March 1 targeting military sites and Supreme Leader Khamenei's compound, have triggered ongoing Iranian retaliatory missile and drone barrages, including two launches toward Israel detected early March 28 with one impact and attacks injuring 12 US troops at Saudi bases. Despite CENTCOM's Operation Epic Fury claiming to have decimated 90% of Iran's ballistic missiles, drones, and naval assets—sinking 30 ships—Iran maintains launches and partial control of the Strait of Hormuz, prompting President Trump's deadline extensions for reopening and stalled 15-point peace talks. With no ceasefire in sight nearly a month in, trader consensus reflects prolonged escalation risks amid diplomatic impasse and potential congressional limits on operations, ahead of further negotiations or Hormuz naval deployments.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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