US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes against Iranian military targets, including four key ballistic missile production facilities struck as recently as March 29, degrading Tehran's missile and drone capabilities one month into the conflict. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Israeli cities and US bases, prompting Marine deployments and Pentagon preparations for potential ground operations amid Tehran's warnings. The IDF reports its "Operation Roaring Lion" strike campaign nearing completion within days, while a US-proposed 15-point deal was rejected. Regional powers meet Sunday in Pakistan for ceasefire talks, representing a key diplomatic catalyst that could influence de-escalation timelines amid ongoing escalation risks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourMilitary action against Iran ends by...?
Military action against Iran ends by...?
$27,079 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
April 1
8%
April 2
5%
April 3
9%
April 4
12%
April 5
11%
April 6
14%
April 7
30%
April 8
39%
April 9
38%
April 10
24%
April 11
41%
April 12
42%
April 13
44%
April 14
23%
April 15
43%
April 16
44%
April 17
44%
April 18
44%
April 19
44%
April 20
44%
April 21
44%
April 22
44%
April 23
44%
April 24
44%
April 25
46%
April 26
44%
April 27
44%
April 28
44%
April 29
42%
April 30
34%
$27,079 Vol.
April 1
$25 Vol.
8%
April 2
$165 Vol.
5%
April 3
$0 Vol.
9%
April 4
$0 Vol.
12%
April 5
$0 Vol.
11%
April 6
$6 Vol.
14%
April 7
$0 Vol.
30%
April 8
$1 Vol.
39%
April 9
$2,763 Vol.
38%
April 10
$0 Vol.
24%
April 11
$0 Vol.
41%
April 12
$0 Vol.
42%
April 13
$0 Vol.
44%
April 14
$3,369 Vol.
23%
April 15
$0 Vol.
43%
April 16
$0 Vol.
44%
April 17
$0 Vol.
44%
April 18
$0 Vol.
44%
April 19
$0 Vol.
44%
April 20
$0 Vol.
44%
April 21
$0 Vol.
44%
April 22
$0 Vol.
44%
April 23
$0 Vol.
44%
April 24
$0 Vol.
44%
April 25
$2,740 Vol.
46%
April 26
$0 Vol.
44%
April 27
$0 Vol.
44%
April 28
$0 Vol.
44%
April 29
$0 Vol.
42%
April 30
$18,059 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes against Iranian military targets, including four key ballistic missile production facilities struck as recently as March 29, degrading Tehran's missile and drone capabilities one month into the conflict. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Israeli cities and US bases, prompting Marine deployments and Pentagon preparations for potential ground operations amid Tehran's warnings. The IDF reports its "Operation Roaring Lion" strike campaign nearing completion within days, while a US-proposed 15-point deal was rejected. Regional powers meet Sunday in Pakistan for ceasefire talks, representing a key diplomatic catalyst that could influence de-escalation timelines amid ongoing escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ET
Volume
$27,079Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes against Iranian military targets, including four key ballistic missile production facilities struck as recently as March 29, degrading Tehran's missile and drone capabilities one month into the conflict. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Israeli cities and US bases, prompting Marine deployments and Pentagon preparations for potential ground operations amid Tehran's warnings. The IDF reports its "Operation Roaring Lion" strike campaign nearing completion within days, while a US-proposed 15-point deal was rejected. Regional powers meet Sunday in Pakistan for ceasefire talks, representing a key diplomatic catalyst that could influence de-escalation timelines amid ongoing escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if neither the US nor Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate on a full calendar day by the listed date, Iran Standard Time (GMT+3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day after the listed date, the respective market will resolve to "Yes" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have occurred.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US or Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an US/Israeli missile, this will qualify).
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be considered, regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US/Israeli ground operatives will not be considered.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$27,079Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 27, 2026, 2:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US and Israeli forces continue intensive airstrikes against Iranian military targets, including four key ballistic missile production facilities struck as recently as March 29, degrading Tehran's missile and drone capabilities one month into the conflict. Iran has retaliated with missile barrages on Israeli cities and US bases, prompting Marine deployments and Pentagon preparations for potential ground operations amid Tehran's warnings. The IDF reports its "Operation Roaring Lion" strike campaign nearing completion within days, while a US-proposed 15-point deal was rejected. Regional powers meet Sunday in Pakistan for ceasefire talks, representing a key diplomatic catalyst that could influence de-escalation timelines amid ongoing escalation risks.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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