A South Korean court rejected prosecutors' request for an arrest warrant against opposition leader Lee Jae-myung on December 11 over alleged election law violations tied to his 2022 presidential campaign, reinforcing trader consensus at 92% against detention before 2027. This follows similar denials in prior cases involving development scandals and false statements, where Lee has remained free pending appeals as Democratic Party head. Amid President Yoon's impeachment turmoil and National Assembly opposition strength, judicial caution amid political tensions reduces pre-trial arrest risks, though new indictments or Supreme Court rulings could shift dynamics ahead of his potential presidential bid. Ongoing trials proceed slowly, with no custody history bolstering the high "No" probability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLee Jae-myung arrêté avant 2027 ?
Lee Jae-myung arrêté avant 2027 ?
Oui
Oui
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...A South Korean court rejected prosecutors' request for an arrest warrant against opposition leader Lee Jae-myung on December 11 over alleged election law violations tied to his 2022 presidential campaign, reinforcing trader consensus at 92% against detention before 2027. This follows similar denials in prior cases involving development scandals and false statements, where Lee has remained free pending appeals as Democratic Party head. Amid President Yoon's impeachment turmoil and National Assembly opposition strength, judicial caution amid political tensions reduces pre-trial arrest risks, though new indictments or Supreme Court rulings could shift dynamics ahead of his potential presidential bid. Ongoing trials proceed slowly, with no custody history bolstering the high "No" probability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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