Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors SpaceX at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by reports last week that the company could file its prospectus as early as this week, targeting a record $75 billion raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation. This surge follows SpaceX's February acquisition of xAI, integrating advanced AI capabilities like Grok with its dominant space launch and Starlink satellite businesses, positioning it far ahead of rivals. xAI's 25.5% odds reflect lingering pre-merger hype but now subordinate status. Anthropic (4.2%) and OpenAI (4.0%) trail due to later Q4 timelines and sub-trillion valuations, with no recent catalysts to challenge SpaceX's lead ahead of potential June listing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa plus grande introduction en bourse par capitalisation boursière en 2026 ?
La plus grande introduction en bourse par capitalisation boursière en 2026 ?
SpaceX 90%
Anthropic 4.1%
OpenAI 4.0%
Discord <1%
$1,625,183 Vol.
$1,625,183 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
SpaceX
90%
Anthropic
4%
OpenAI
4%
Discord
1%
Kraken
1%
Stripe
<1%
Databricks
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Perplexity AI
<1%
Revolut
<1%
Waymo
<1%
SHEIN
<1%
SpaceX 90%
Anthropic 4.1%
OpenAI 4.0%
Discord <1%
$1,625,183 Vol.
$1,625,183 Vol.
31 déc. 2026
SpaceX
$180,448 Vol.
90%
Anthropic
$342,992 Vol.
4%
OpenAI
$295,465 Vol.
4%
Discord
$68,035 Vol.
1%
Kraken
$373,619 Vol.
1%
Stripe
$38,578 Vol.
<1%
Databricks
$67,380 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$84,167 Vol.
<1%
Perplexity AI
$53,198 Vol.
<1%
Revolut
$24,959 Vol.
<1%
Waymo
$44,370 Vol.
<1%
SHEIN
$51,970 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors SpaceX at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by reports last week that the company could file its prospectus as early as this week, targeting a record $75 billion raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation. This surge follows SpaceX's February acquisition of xAI, integrating advanced AI capabilities like Grok with its dominant space launch and Starlink satellite businesses, positioning it far ahead of rivals. xAI's 25.5% odds reflect lingering pre-merger hype but now subordinate status. Anthropic (4.2%) and OpenAI (4.0%) trail due to later Q4 timelines and sub-trillion valuations, with no recent catalysts to challenge SpaceX's lead ahead of potential June listing.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Marché ouvert : Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ET
Volume
$1,625,183Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors SpaceX at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by reports last week that the company could file its prospectus as early as this week, targeting a record $75 billion raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation. This surge follows SpaceX's February acquisition of xAI, integrating advanced AI capabilities like Grok with its dominant space launch and Starlink satellite businesses, positioning it far ahead of rivals. xAI's 25.5% odds reflect lingering pre-merger hype but now subordinate status. Anthropic (4.2%) and OpenAI (4.0%) trail due to later Q4 timelines and sub-trillion valuations, with no recent catalysts to challenge SpaceX's lead ahead of potential June listing.
This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used.
A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$1,625,183Date de fin
31 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 2, 2026, 5:32 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors SpaceX at 89.5% implied probability for the largest 2026 IPO by market cap, driven by reports last week that the company could file its prospectus as early as this week, targeting a record $75 billion raise at a $1.75 trillion valuation. This surge follows SpaceX's February acquisition of xAI, integrating advanced AI capabilities like Grok with its dominant space launch and Starlink satellite businesses, positioning it far ahead of rivals. xAI's 25.5% odds reflect lingering pre-merger hype but now subordinate status. Anthropic (4.2%) and OpenAI (4.0%) trail due to later Q4 timelines and sub-trillion valuations, with no recent catalysts to challenge SpaceX's lead ahead of potential June listing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes