Market icon
Géopolitique·Gaza

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?

Market icon
Géopolitique·Gaza

Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30?

Ended: Aug 17, 2025

Ended: Aug 17, 2025

<1% chance
Polymarket

$5,951,177 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$5,951,177 Vol.

On March 17, Israel announced extensive strikes on terror targets belonging to the Hamas terrorist organization in the Gaza Strip ending a previous ceasefire agreement which had been agreed on January 15 (See: https://x.com/IDF/status/1901802698237935705). This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between July 29 and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards. An announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been reached will suffice.

On March 17, Israel announced extensive strikes on terror targets belonging to the Hamas terrorist organization in the Gaza Strip ending a previous ceasefire agreement which had been agreed on January 15 (See: https://x.com/IDF/status/1901802698237935705).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between July 29 and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards.

An announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$5,951,177
Date de fin
Sep 30, 2025
Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2025, 1:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...

Résultat proposé: No

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: No

On March 17, Israel announced extensive strikes on terror targets belonging to the Hamas terrorist organization in the Gaza Strip ending a previous ceasefire agreement which had been agreed on January 15 (See: https://x.com/IDF/status/1901802698237935705). This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between July 29 and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards. An announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify. Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market. This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been reached will suffice.

On March 17, Israel announced extensive strikes on terror targets belonging to the Hamas terrorist organization in the Gaza Strip ending a previous ceasefire agreement which had been agreed on January 15 (See: https://x.com/IDF/status/1901802698237935705).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Israel and Hamas between July 29 and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterwards.

An announced agreement to reinstate the previous agreed upon January 15th ceasefire deal will qualify.

Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.

This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Israel and Hamas, however a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$5,951,177
Date de fin
Sep 30, 2025
Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2025, 1:54 PM ET

Resolver

0x157Ce2d67...

Résultat proposé: No

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: No

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Questions fréquentes

« Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket où les traders achètent et vendent des parts « Oui » ou « Non » selon qu'ils estiment que cet événement se produira ou non. La probabilité actuelle selon la communauté est de 0% pour « Yes ». Par exemple, si « Oui » est coté à 0¢, le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 0% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes changent en permanence à mesure que les traders réagissent aux nouveaux développements et informations. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? » a généré $6 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jul 29, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? », choisissez simplement si vous pensez que la réponse est « Oui » ou « Non ». Chaque côté a un prix actuel qui reflète la probabilité implicite du marché. Entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » et que le résultat se résout comme « Oui », chaque part rapporte $1. S'il se résout comme « Non », vos parts « Oui » rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts à tout moment avant la résolution pour sécuriser un gain ou limiter une perte.

La probabilité actuelle pour « Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? » est de 0% pour « Yes ». Cela signifie que la communauté Polymarket estime actuellement qu'il y a une probabilité de 0% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel sur la base de transactions réelles, fournissant un signal continuellement actualisé de ce que le marché attend.

Les règles de résolution de « Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.