Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis launched their first missile and drone strikes on Israel on March 28, marking a proxy escalation one month into the US-Israel war with Iran, which has seen seven Iranian missile waves targeting Israeli sites and reciprocal strikes on Tehran's nuclear facilities, steel plants, power stations, and universities. Impact craters from recent Iranian barrages appeared in Arad and Beersheba, while US troops were injured in an Iranian attack on a Saudi base. Cease-fire talks remain stalled amid hardened positions, with President Trump extending deadlines for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz; Iran warned of strikes on regional US universities by March 30 unless condemned. Traders weigh persistent Iranian retaliation capacity against degraded missile infrastructure.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourIran military action against Israel on...?
Iran military action against Israel on...?
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
April 1
85%
April 2
79%
April 3
79%
April 4
77%
April 5
76%
April 6
75%
April 7
71%
April 8
76%
April 9
64%
April 10
66%
$1,563 Vol.
April 1
$572 Vol.
85%
April 2
$234 Vol.
79%
April 3
$111 Vol.
79%
April 4
$53 Vol.
77%
April 5
$19 Vol.
76%
April 6
$31 Vol.
75%
April 7
$164 Vol.
71%
April 8
$180 Vol.
76%
April 9
$113 Vol.
64%
April 10
$84 Vol.
66%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis launched their first missile and drone strikes on Israel on March 28, marking a proxy escalation one month into the US-Israel war with Iran, which has seen seven Iranian missile waves targeting Israeli sites and reciprocal strikes on Tehran's nuclear facilities, steel plants, power stations, and universities. Impact craters from recent Iranian barrages appeared in Arad and Beersheba, while US troops were injured in an Iranian attack on a Saudi base. Cease-fire talks remain stalled amid hardened positions, with President Trump extending deadlines for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz; Iran warned of strikes on regional US universities by March 30 unless condemned. Traders weigh persistent Iranian retaliation capacity against degraded missile infrastructure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ET
Volume
$1,563Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis launched their first missile and drone strikes on Israel on March 28, marking a proxy escalation one month into the US-Israel war with Iran, which has seen seven Iranian missile waves targeting Israeli sites and reciprocal strikes on Tehran's nuclear facilities, steel plants, power stations, and universities. Impact craters from recent Iranian barrages appeared in Arad and Beersheba, while US troops were injured in an Iranian attack on a Saudi base. Cease-fire talks remain stalled amid hardened positions, with President Trump extending deadlines for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz; Iran warned of strikes on regional US universities by March 30 unless condemned. Traders weigh persistent Iranian retaliation capacity against degraded missile infrastructure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Israel’s soil on the listed date in Israel Time (GMT+2). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact Israeli ground territory.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of Israel counts. Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip will not be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on Israeli territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ground-based ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Iranian ground operatives will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Israeli or foreign), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$1,563Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 1:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Yemen's Iran-backed Houthis launched their first missile and drone strikes on Israel on March 28, marking a proxy escalation one month into the US-Israel war with Iran, which has seen seven Iranian missile waves targeting Israeli sites and reciprocal strikes on Tehran's nuclear facilities, steel plants, power stations, and universities. Impact craters from recent Iranian barrages appeared in Arad and Beersheba, while US troops were injured in an Iranian attack on a Saudi base. Cease-fire talks remain stalled amid hardened positions, with President Trump extending deadlines for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz; Iran warned of strikes on regional US universities by March 30 unless condemned. Traders weigh persistent Iranian retaliation capacity against degraded missile infrastructure.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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