Amid the US-Israel-Iran war that erupted on February 28, 2026, with US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites and air defenses, Iran has retaliated via missile and drone barrages targeting Israel and US bases in Gulf states like Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Overnight exchanges continued as of March 28, including Iranian cluster munitions on Tel Aviv and Israeli strikes on Tehran industrial sites, sustaining escalation signals. President Trump has paused attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure pending a 15-point de-escalation proposal, while US pushes diplomacy amid congressional scrutiny of war funding. Gulf allies hosting US forces face elevated risks of further Iranian reprisals before April 30, though ceasefire talks could avert additional strikes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourIran military action against ___ by April 30?
Iran military action against ___ by April 30?
$101,054 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Bahrain
97%
UAE
93%
Kuwait
91%
Qatar
60%
Iraq
42%
Oman
55%
Lebanon
31%
Yemen
21%
Syria
28%
Azerbaijan
10%
Turkey
9%
Pakistan
8%
Cyprus
6%
UK
5%
India
5%
Poland
4%
Germany
4%
Italy
3%
France
3%
Afghanistan
3%
Hungary
3%
Georgia
3%
Spain
2%
Ukraine
2%
Armenia
2%
$101,054 Vol.
Bahrain
$1,740 Vol.
97%
UAE
$544 Vol.
93%
Kuwait
$873 Vol.
91%
Qatar
$276 Vol.
60%
Iraq
$235 Vol.
42%
Oman
$1,859 Vol.
55%
Lebanon
$795 Vol.
31%
Yemen
$312 Vol.
21%
Syria
$283 Vol.
28%
Azerbaijan
$523 Vol.
10%
Turkey
$279 Vol.
9%
Pakistan
$0 Vol.
8%
Cyprus
$263 Vol.
6%
UK
$1,583 Vol.
5%
India
$0 Vol.
5%
Poland
$4,461 Vol.
4%
Germany
$4,233 Vol.
4%
Italy
$100 Vol.
3%
France
$0 Vol.
3%
Afghanistan
$0 Vol.
3%
Hungary
$9,624 Vol.
3%
Georgia
$460 Vol.
3%
Spain
$1,672 Vol.
2%
Ukraine
$240 Vol.
2%
Armenia
$579 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the US-Israel-Iran war that erupted on February 28, 2026, with US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites and air defenses, Iran has retaliated via missile and drone barrages targeting Israel and US bases in Gulf states like Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Overnight exchanges continued as of March 28, including Iranian cluster munitions on Tel Aviv and Israeli strikes on Tehran industrial sites, sustaining escalation signals. President Trump has paused attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure pending a 15-point de-escalation proposal, while US pushes diplomacy amid congressional scrutiny of war funding. Gulf allies hosting US forces face elevated risks of further Iranian reprisals before April 30, though ceasefire talks could avert additional strikes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
Volume
$101,054Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the US-Israel-Iran war that erupted on February 28, 2026, with US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites and air defenses, Iran has retaliated via missile and drone barrages targeting Israel and US bases in Gulf states like Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Overnight exchanges continued as of March 28, including Iranian cluster munitions on Tel Aviv and Israeli strikes on Tehran industrial sites, sustaining escalation signals. President Trump has paused attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure pending a 15-point de-escalation proposal, while US pushes diplomacy amid congressional scrutiny of war funding. Gulf allies hosting US forces face elevated risks of further Iranian reprisals before April 30, though ceasefire talks could avert additional strikes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$101,054Date de fin
Apr 30, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the US-Israel-Iran war that erupted on February 28, 2026, with US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian missile sites and air defenses, Iran has retaliated via missile and drone barrages targeting Israel and US bases in Gulf states like Bahrain, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia. Overnight exchanges continued as of March 28, including Iranian cluster munitions on Tel Aviv and Israeli strikes on Tehran industrial sites, sustaining escalation signals. President Trump has paused attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure pending a 15-point de-escalation proposal, while US pushes diplomacy amid congressional scrutiny of war funding. Gulf allies hosting US forces face elevated risks of further Iranian reprisals before April 30, though ceasefire talks could avert additional strikes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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