Israeli airstrikes on Iran, intensifying as recently as March 28 against nuclear sites like Arak and military targets in Tehran and Isfahan, have solidified trader consensus around three countries—primarily Iran, Lebanon (Hezbollah positions), and Syria—as confirmed strike locations in March. Ongoing exchanges with Hezbollah, including strikes near the Litani River on March 23 and rocket salvos through March 26, alongside routine Syrian operations, anchor the 63% probability on exactly three, reflecting no verified expansion to a fourth sovereign state like Yemen despite Houthi missile launches on March 28-29. With one day left before resolution, limited time and stalled diplomacy reduce odds of further escalation to 37% for four or more, per skin-in-the-game pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourCombien de pays différents Israël va-t-il frapper en mars ?
Combien de pays différents Israël va-t-il frapper en mars ?
$323,461 Vol.
$323,461 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
3
64%
≥4
36%
$323,461 Vol.
$323,461 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
3
$93,204 Vol.
64%
≥4
$201,072 Vol.
36%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli airstrikes on Iran, intensifying as recently as March 28 against nuclear sites like Arak and military targets in Tehran and Isfahan, have solidified trader consensus around three countries—primarily Iran, Lebanon (Hezbollah positions), and Syria—as confirmed strike locations in March. Ongoing exchanges with Hezbollah, including strikes near the Litani River on March 23 and rocket salvos through March 26, alongside routine Syrian operations, anchor the 63% probability on exactly three, reflecting no verified expansion to a fourth sovereign state like Yemen despite Houthi missile launches on March 28-29. With one day left before resolution, limited time and stalled diplomacy reduce odds of further escalation to 37% for four or more, per skin-in-the-game pricing.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
Volume
$323,461Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Israeli airstrikes on Iran, intensifying as recently as March 28 against nuclear sites like Arak and military targets in Tehran and Isfahan, have solidified trader consensus around three countries—primarily Iran, Lebanon (Hezbollah positions), and Syria—as confirmed strike locations in March. Ongoing exchanges with Hezbollah, including strikes near the Litani River on March 23 and rocket salvos through March 26, alongside routine Syrian operations, anchor the 63% probability on exactly three, reflecting no verified expansion to a fourth sovereign state like Yemen despite Houthi missile launches on March 28-29. With one day left before resolution, limited time and stalled diplomacy reduce odds of further escalation to 37% for four or more, per skin-in-the-game pricing.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between March 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$323,461Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Feb 26, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Israeli airstrikes on Iran, intensifying as recently as March 28 against nuclear sites like Arak and military targets in Tehran and Isfahan, have solidified trader consensus around three countries—primarily Iran, Lebanon (Hezbollah positions), and Syria—as confirmed strike locations in March. Ongoing exchanges with Hezbollah, including strikes near the Litani River on March 23 and rocket salvos through March 26, alongside routine Syrian operations, anchor the 63% probability on exactly three, reflecting no verified expansion to a fourth sovereign state like Yemen despite Houthi missile launches on March 28-29. With one day left before resolution, limited time and stalled diplomacy reduce odds of further escalation to 37% for four or more, per skin-in-the-game pricing.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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