Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 69°F or below in Los Angeles on March 25, backed by National Weather Service observations and models showing a daytime high of 66–68°F at LAX, the market's likely reference station. Persistent onshore flow from a cool Pacific marine layer, combined with upper-level troughing over California, has capped temperatures well below seasonal norms of 70–75°F, consistent with recent spring patterns amid neutral ENSO conditions. No significant warming signals appear in ensemble forecast models like GFS and ECMWF. Realistic challenges would require a rare post-event measurement revision from official NOAA data or an unforecasted clearing event, both highly improbable given stable synoptic setup. Final high will be confirmed via archived airport observations within days.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Los Angeles on March 25?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on March 25?
69°F or below 100.0%
70-71°F <1%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Mar 25, 2026
69°F or below
Yes
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
No
86-87°F
No
88°F or higher
No
69°F or below 100.0%
70-71°F <1%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
$0.00 Vol.
$0.00 Vol.
Mar 25, 2026
69°F or below
$0 Vol.
Yes
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
No
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
No
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
No
88°F or higher
$0 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 69°F or below in Los Angeles on March 25, backed by National Weather Service observations and models showing a daytime high of 66–68°F at LAX, the market's likely reference station. Persistent onshore flow from a cool Pacific marine layer, combined with upper-level troughing over California, has capped temperatures well below seasonal norms of 70–75°F, consistent with recent spring patterns amid neutral ENSO conditions. No significant warming signals appear in ensemble forecast models like GFS and ECMWF. Realistic challenges would require a rare post-event measurement revision from official NOAA data or an unforecasted clearing event, both highly improbable given stable synoptic setup. Final high will be confirmed via archived airport observations within days.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 21, 2026, 6:32 AM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
Mar 25, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 21, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Yes
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 69°F or below in Los Angeles on March 25, backed by National Weather Service observations and models showing a daytime high of 66–68°F at LAX, the market's likely reference station. Persistent onshore flow from a cool Pacific marine layer, combined with upper-level troughing over California, has capped temperatures well below seasonal norms of 70–75°F, consistent with recent spring patterns amid neutral ENSO conditions. No significant warming signals appear in ensemble forecast models like GFS and ECMWF. Realistic challenges would require a rare post-event measurement revision from official NOAA data or an unforecasted clearing event, both highly improbable given stable synoptic setup. Final high will be confirmed via archived airport observations within days.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 25 Mar '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Los Angeles International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$0Date de fin
Mar 25, 2026Marché ouvert
Mar 21, 2026, 6:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Résultat proposé: Yes
Aucune contestation
Résultat final: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to a highest temperature of 69°F or below in Los Angeles on March 25, backed by National Weather Service observations and models showing a daytime high of 66–68°F at LAX, the market's likely reference station. Persistent onshore flow from a cool Pacific marine layer, combined with upper-level troughing over California, has capped temperatures well below seasonal norms of 70–75°F, consistent with recent spring patterns amid neutral ENSO conditions. No significant warming signals appear in ensemble forecast models like GFS and ECMWF. Realistic challenges would require a rare post-event measurement revision from official NOAA data or an unforecasted clearing event, both highly improbable given stable synoptic setup. Final high will be confirmed via archived airport observations within days.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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