The Federal Reserve held its federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% in the March 18, 2026 FOMC meeting, citing balanced risks to maximum employment and 2% inflation but noting upside pressures from oil price spikes amid Middle East geopolitical tensions. February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, unchanged from January, while unemployment ticked up to 4.4%, signaling a resilient yet softening labor market. Trader consensus, reflected in CME FedWatch probabilities, prices near-certainty of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, with cuts potentially deferred to later 2026. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI on April 10 and April nonfarm payrolls, which could shift rate path expectations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$1,256,791 Vol.
Réunion d'avril
1%
Réunion de juin
12%
Réunion de juillet
25%
Réunion de septembre
45%
Réunion d'octobre
54%
Réunion de décembre
64%
$1,256,791 Vol.
Réunion d'avril
1%
Réunion de juin
12%
Réunion de juillet
25%
Réunion de septembre
45%
Réunion d'octobre
54%
Réunion de décembre
64%
If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Feb 25, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate cuts will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The Federal Reserve held its federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% in the March 18, 2026 FOMC meeting, citing balanced risks to maximum employment and 2% inflation but noting upside pressures from oil price spikes amid Middle East geopolitical tensions. February CPI rose 2.4% year-over-year, unchanged from January, while unemployment ticked up to 4.4%, signaling a resilient yet softening labor market. Trader consensus, reflected in CME FedWatch probabilities, prices near-certainty of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, with cuts potentially deferred to later 2026. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI on April 10 and April nonfarm payrolls, which could shift rate path expectations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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