The district's strong Democratic partisan lean and incumbent Pete Aguilar's established position as a House Democratic leader have produced the current 93.5% trader consensus for a Democratic victory in the November general election. California’s June 2 primary confirmed Aguilar’s advancement against Republican Stephanie Vargas, aligning with nonpartisan ratings that classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic based on prior margins exceeding 10 points and the district’s voter composition. Limited Republican fundraising or national shifts would be required to narrow the gap before Election Day. Late developments such as a major scandal involving the incumbent or an unexpected national political realignment remain the primary factors that could realistically alter the outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-33 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-33 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
94%
Parti républicain
6%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$4,276 Vol.
94%
Parti républicain
$1,470 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Democratic partisan lean and incumbent Pete Aguilar's established position as a House Democratic leader have produced the current 93.5% trader consensus for a Democratic victory in the November general election. California’s June 2 primary confirmed Aguilar’s advancement against Republican Stephanie Vargas, aligning with nonpartisan ratings that classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic based on prior margins exceeding 10 points and the district’s voter composition. Limited Republican fundraising or national shifts would be required to narrow the gap before Election Day. Late developments such as a major scandal involving the incumbent or an unexpected national political realignment remain the primary factors that could realistically alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ET
Volume
$5,746Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's strong Democratic partisan lean and incumbent Pete Aguilar's established position as a House Democratic leader have produced the current 93.5% trader consensus for a Democratic victory in the November general election. California’s June 2 primary confirmed Aguilar’s advancement against Republican Stephanie Vargas, aligning with nonpartisan ratings that classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic based on prior margins exceeding 10 points and the district’s voter composition. Limited Republican fundraising or national shifts would be required to narrow the gap before Election Day. Late developments such as a major scandal involving the incumbent or an unexpected national political realignment remain the primary factors that could realistically alter the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$5,746Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 12:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The district's strong Democratic partisan lean and incumbent Pete Aguilar's established position as a House Democratic leader have produced the current 93.5% trader consensus for a Democratic victory in the November general election. California’s June 2 primary confirmed Aguilar’s advancement against Republican Stephanie Vargas, aligning with nonpartisan ratings that classify the seat as solid or safe Democratic based on prior margins exceeding 10 points and the district’s voter composition. Limited Republican fundraising or national shifts would be required to narrow the gap before Election Day. Late developments such as a major scandal involving the incumbent or an unexpected national political realignment remain the primary factors that could realistically alter the outcome.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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