The Democratic Party holds a commanding 91.5% implied probability in the CA-04 House race due to the district's strong partisan lean, consistent Democratic voter registration advantages, and the long record of incumbent Mike Thompson, who has represented the Northern California seat since 1999 with double-digit margins in recent cycles. The nonpartisan primary on June 2, 2026, features Thompson against a Democratic challenger and several Republicans, but the seat's Cook Political Report Solid D rating and historical results point to a likely Democratic nominee advancing to the November general election. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors, including the district's composition in wine country and Sacramento suburbs. A realistic shift would require an unusually strong Republican performance amid national conditions or an unexpected primary upset, though both remain low-probability outcomes based on current positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourCA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
92%
Parti républicain
7%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
3 nov. 2026
Parti démocrate
$630 Vol.
92%
Parti républicain
$2,081 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds a commanding 91.5% implied probability in the CA-04 House race due to the district's strong partisan lean, consistent Democratic voter registration advantages, and the long record of incumbent Mike Thompson, who has represented the Northern California seat since 1999 with double-digit margins in recent cycles. The nonpartisan primary on June 2, 2026, features Thompson against a Democratic challenger and several Republicans, but the seat's Cook Political Report Solid D rating and historical results point to a likely Democratic nominee advancing to the November general election. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors, including the district's composition in wine country and Sacramento suburbs. A realistic shift would require an unusually strong Republican performance amid national conditions or an unexpected primary upset, though both remain low-probability outcomes based on current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$2,711Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The Democratic Party holds a commanding 91.5% implied probability in the CA-04 House race due to the district's strong partisan lean, consistent Democratic voter registration advantages, and the long record of incumbent Mike Thompson, who has represented the Northern California seat since 1999 with double-digit margins in recent cycles. The nonpartisan primary on June 2, 2026, features Thompson against a Democratic challenger and several Republicans, but the seat's Cook Political Report Solid D rating and historical results point to a likely Democratic nominee advancing to the November general election. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors, including the district's composition in wine country and Sacramento suburbs. A realistic shift would require an unusually strong Republican performance amid national conditions or an unexpected primary upset, though both remain low-probability outcomes based on current positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$2,711Date de fin
3 nov. 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Democratic Party holds a commanding 91.5% implied probability in the CA-04 House race due to the district's strong partisan lean, consistent Democratic voter registration advantages, and the long record of incumbent Mike Thompson, who has represented the Northern California seat since 1999 with double-digit margins in recent cycles. The nonpartisan primary on June 2, 2026, features Thompson against a Democratic challenger and several Republicans, but the seat's Cook Political Report Solid D rating and historical results point to a likely Democratic nominee advancing to the November general election. Trader consensus reflects these structural factors, including the district's composition in wine country and Sacramento suburbs. A realistic shift would require an unusually strong Republican performance amid national conditions or an unexpected primary upset, though both remain low-probability outcomes based on current positioning.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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