Trader consensus strongly favors the Democratic Party nominee at 91% implied probability to win California's 4th Congressional District House seat, a traditional Republican stronghold in rural northern California encompassing the Sierra Nevada and Gold Country. This commanding position stems from recent polling averages showing Democrat Jennifer Richter surging ahead of Republican incumbent Tom McClintock by double digits, bolstered by superior fundraising—Richter raised over $1 million in Q3—and robust volunteer turnout amid early voting. McClintock's primary vulnerabilities and limited campaign visibility have eroded his incumbency edge. While scenarios like a Richter scandal, major endorsement for McClintock, or unexpected conservative mobilization could shift odds, the path to Republican victory narrows with just weeks until Election Day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourCA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Parti démocrate
91%
Parti républicain
9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Parti démocrate
$0 Vol.
91%
Parti républicain
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus strongly favors the Democratic Party nominee at 91% implied probability to win California's 4th Congressional District House seat, a traditional Republican stronghold in rural northern California encompassing the Sierra Nevada and Gold Country. This commanding position stems from recent polling averages showing Democrat Jennifer Richter surging ahead of Republican incumbent Tom McClintock by double digits, bolstered by superior fundraising—Richter raised over $1 million in Q3—and robust volunteer turnout amid early voting. McClintock's primary vulnerabilities and limited campaign visibility have eroded his incumbency edge. While scenarios like a Richter scandal, major endorsement for McClintock, or unexpected conservative mobilization could shift odds, the path to Republican victory narrows with just weeks until Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus strongly favors the Democratic Party nominee at 91% implied probability to win California's 4th Congressional District House seat, a traditional Republican stronghold in rural northern California encompassing the Sierra Nevada and Gold Country. This commanding position stems from recent polling averages showing Democrat Jennifer Richter surging ahead of Republican incumbent Tom McClintock by double digits, bolstered by superior fundraising—Richter raised over $1 million in Q3—and robust volunteer turnout amid early voting. McClintock's primary vulnerabilities and limited campaign visibility have eroded his incumbency edge. While scenarios like a Richter scandal, major endorsement for McClintock, or unexpected conservative mobilization could shift odds, the path to Republican victory narrows with just weeks until Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus strongly favors the Democratic Party nominee at 91% implied probability to win California's 4th Congressional District House seat, a traditional Republican stronghold in rural northern California encompassing the Sierra Nevada and Gold Country. This commanding position stems from recent polling averages showing Democrat Jennifer Richter surging ahead of Republican incumbent Tom McClintock by double digits, bolstered by superior fundraising—Richter raised over $1 million in Q3—and robust volunteer turnout amid early voting. McClintock's primary vulnerabilities and limited campaign visibility have eroded his incumbency edge. While scenarios like a Richter scandal, major endorsement for McClintock, or unexpected conservative mobilization could shift odds, the path to Republican victory narrows with just weeks until Election Day.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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