Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% to win California's 1st Congressional District special election, triggered by the January 2026 death of Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa, with a nonpartisan top-two primary on June 2 and potential runoff on August 4 under the current Republican-leaning map (R+12 partisan voter index). Former state Senate President pro tempore Mike McGuire leads a late-February David Binder poll of likely voters 33%-30% over Assembly Minority Leader James Gallagher amid a split Democratic field including Audrey Denney at 18%, bolstered by McGuire's $450,000 fundraising edge and statewide name recognition. This positioning reflects skin-in-the-game bets on Democratic consolidation and special election turnout dynamics favoring urban voters. Realistic challenges include Republicans unifying behind Gallagher to claim both top-two spots, a Democratic vote split sending Gallagher to the runoff against a weaker opponent, surged GOP mobilization, or a late scandal hitting McGuire ahead of the primary.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourCA-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
CA-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
$13,784 Vol.
$13,784 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Parti démocrate
92%
Parti républicain
5%
$13,784 Vol.
$13,784 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Parti démocrate
$13,784 Vol.
92%
Parti républicain
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% to win California's 1st Congressional District special election, triggered by the January 2026 death of Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa, with a nonpartisan top-two primary on June 2 and potential runoff on August 4 under the current Republican-leaning map (R+12 partisan voter index). Former state Senate President pro tempore Mike McGuire leads a late-February David Binder poll of likely voters 33%-30% over Assembly Minority Leader James Gallagher amid a split Democratic field including Audrey Denney at 18%, bolstered by McGuire's $450,000 fundraising edge and statewide name recognition. This positioning reflects skin-in-the-game bets on Democratic consolidation and special election turnout dynamics favoring urban voters. Realistic challenges include Republicans unifying behind Gallagher to claim both top-two spots, a Democratic vote split sending Gallagher to the runoff against a weaker opponent, surged GOP mobilization, or a late scandal hitting McGuire ahead of the primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Volume
$13,784Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% to win California's 1st Congressional District special election, triggered by the January 2026 death of Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa, with a nonpartisan top-two primary on June 2 and potential runoff on August 4 under the current Republican-leaning map (R+12 partisan voter index). Former state Senate President pro tempore Mike McGuire leads a late-February David Binder poll of likely voters 33%-30% over Assembly Minority Leader James Gallagher amid a split Democratic field including Audrey Denney at 18%, bolstered by McGuire's $450,000 fundraising edge and statewide name recognition. This positioning reflects skin-in-the-game bets on Democratic consolidation and special election turnout dynamics favoring urban voters. Realistic challenges include Republicans unifying behind Gallagher to claim both top-two spots, a Democratic vote split sending Gallagher to the runoff against a weaker opponent, surged GOP mobilization, or a late scandal hitting McGuire ahead of the primary.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$13,784Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 91.5% to win California's 1st Congressional District special election, triggered by the January 2026 death of Republican incumbent Doug LaMalfa, with a nonpartisan top-two primary on June 2 and potential runoff on August 4 under the current Republican-leaning map (R+12 partisan voter index). Former state Senate President pro tempore Mike McGuire leads a late-February David Binder poll of likely voters 33%-30% over Assembly Minority Leader James Gallagher amid a split Democratic field including Audrey Denney at 18%, bolstered by McGuire's $450,000 fundraising edge and statewide name recognition. This positioning reflects skin-in-the-game bets on Democratic consolidation and special election turnout dynamics favoring urban voters. Realistic challenges include Republicans unifying behind Gallagher to claim both top-two spots, a Democratic vote split sending Gallagher to the runoff against a weaker opponent, surged GOP mobilization, or a late scandal hitting McGuire ahead of the primary.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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