Market icon
Économie·Moyen-Orient·

Asked by

Ryan Petersen image

Ryan Petersen

1 000+ transits de porte-conteneurs du canal de Suez au premier trimestre 2026 ?

Market icon
Économie·Moyen-Orient·

Asked by

Ryan Petersen image

Ryan Petersen

1 000+ transits de porte-conteneurs du canal de Suez au premier trimestre 2026 ?

Oui

2% chance
Polymarket

$49,683 Vol.

Oui

2% chance
Polymarket

$49,683 Vol.

Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024. This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.3% implied probability for fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, driven by persistent Red Sea security risks from renewed Houthi missile and drone threats reported in early March 2026. January 2026 recorded just 150 container transits— the weakest in a decade—while February and March volumes remained suppressed at levels 60-80% below pre-crisis norms, as major carriers like CMA CGM continue Cape of Good Hope diversions amid elevated war-risk premiums. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects supply chain adaptations to prolonged disruptions, with aggregate Q1 transits unlikely to exceed 500 despite sporadic mega-vessel passages. Tail risks include an abrupt ceasefire enabling a late-March surge, though proximity to March 31 resolution limits upside potential.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.3% implied probability for fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, driven by persistent Red Sea security risks from renewed Houthi missile and drone threats reported in early March 2026. January 2026 recorded just 150 container transits— the weakest in a decade—while February and March volumes remained suppressed at levels 60-80% below pre-crisis norms, as major carriers like CMA CGM continue Cape of Good Hope diversions amid elevated war-risk premiums. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects supply chain adaptations to prolonged disruptions, with aggregate Q1 transits unlikely to exceed 500 despite sporadic mega-vessel passages. Tail risks include an abrupt ceasefire enabling a late-March surge, though proximity to March 31 resolution limits upside potential.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Container shipping through the Suez Canal has been severely impacted since late 2023 due to security concerns in the Red Sea related to Houthi attacks, with major carriers rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope. Prior to these concerns, the Suez Canal Authority (SCA) reported 5,847 container ship transits of the canal for the full year of 2023, for an average of about 1,461 container ship transits per quarter. Following the Houthi attacks, the number of container ships transiting the canal has dropped significantly, with a reported average of around 437 container ship transits of the canal per quarter in 2024. This market will resolve to "Yes" if there are 1000 or more container ship transits of the Suez Canal during the first quarter of 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary source of resolution for this market will be the Suez Canal Authority (SCA), specifically the number of “Container Ships” reported in the SCA “Quarter Number & Net Ton by Ship Type” report for Q1 2026 (https://www.suezcanal.gov.eg/English/Navigation/Pages/NavigationStatistics.aspx). If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another SCA resolution source may be chosen. If the SCA does not publish specific data on the number of container ship transits of the Suez Canal for the first quarter of 2026 by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, credible third-party maritime data providers (e.g., IMF PortWatch, Clarkson Research, or Lloyd's List), citing SCA figures or satellite tracking data, will be used to determine the count, with the relevant time period being January 1, 2026 through March 31, 2026.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.3% implied probability for fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, driven by persistent Red Sea security risks from renewed Houthi missile and drone threats reported in early March 2026. January 2026 recorded just 150 container transits— the weakest in a decade—while February and March volumes remained suppressed at levels 60-80% below pre-crisis norms, as major carriers like CMA CGM continue Cape of Good Hope diversions amid elevated war-risk premiums. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects supply chain adaptations to prolonged disruptions, with aggregate Q1 transits unlikely to exceed 500 despite sporadic mega-vessel passages. Tail risks include an abrupt ceasefire enabling a late-March surge, though proximity to March 31 resolution limits upside potential.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 98.3% implied probability for fewer than 1,000 container ship transits through the Suez Canal in Q1 2026, driven by persistent Red Sea security risks from renewed Houthi missile and drone threats reported in early March 2026. January 2026 recorded just 150 container transits— the weakest in a decade—while February and March volumes remained suppressed at levels 60-80% below pre-crisis norms, as major carriers like CMA CGM continue Cape of Good Hope diversions amid elevated war-risk premiums. This skin-in-the-game sentiment reflects supply chain adaptations to prolonged disruptions, with aggregate Q1 transits unlikely to exceed 500 despite sporadic mega-vessel passages. Tail risks include an abrupt ceasefire enabling a late-March surge, though proximity to March 31 resolution limits upside potential.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« 1 000+ transits de porte-conteneurs du canal de Suez au premier trimestre 2026 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 2 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Plus de 1 000 transits de porte-conteneurs par le canal de Suez au premier trimestre 2026 ? » à 2%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 2¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 2% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « 1 000+ transits de porte-conteneurs du canal de Suez au premier trimestre 2026 ? » a généré $49.7K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Nov 25, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « 1 000+ transits de porte-conteneurs du canal de Suez au premier trimestre 2026 ? », parcourez les 2 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

C'est un marché très ouvert. Le leader actuel pour « 1 000+ transits de porte-conteneurs du canal de Suez au premier trimestre 2026 ? » est « Plus de 1 000 transits de porte-conteneurs par le canal de Suez au premier trimestre 2026 ? » à seulement 2%. Aucun résultat ne dominant clairement, les traders voient cela comme très incertain, ce qui peut présenter des opportunités de trading uniques. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel, alors ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « 1 000+ transits de porte-conteneurs du canal de Suez au premier trimestre 2026 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.