Name: Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is You'?
Start: 2025-12-05T23:56:39.670894Z
End: 2025-12-25T00:00:00Z

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Spotify curates a playlist of the most streamed songs globally and updates it by 6PM to reflect streaming data for the previous day, beginning at 12AM UTC and ending 11:59PM the preceding day.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mariah Carey's 'All I Want For Christmas Is You' is the most-streamed song globally on Spotify for the day labeled December 25.

If Spotify does not release its top song for December 25 by December 26, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify. The daily top songs chart can be found on open.spotify.com under the "Charts" heading. 

Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is You'?

This market will resolve according to the listed songs within the Billboard Hot 100’s Top 10 for the week titled “week of January 3, 2026”.

Only the listed songs within spots numbered 1 through 10 (inclusive) will qualify towards the resolution of this market.

The resolution source will be Billboard.com.

Will Let it Snow! Let it Snow! Let it Snow! - Dean Martin be in the Billboard Top 10 for the week of January 3, 2026?

Spotify releases an annual report of its most streamed artist (see: https://newsroom.spotify.com/2025-12-03/wrapped-top-artists-songs-albums-podcasts-audiobooks/). This market refers to the most streamed Spotify artist for 2026. 

This market will resolve according to the name of the artist listed by Spotify as the top artist of 2026.

If Spotify does not release who their top artist for 2026 is by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify, typically released as part of Spotify Wrapped. 

Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new album between October 8 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.

Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.

The resolution source will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.

Will Harry Styles release an album in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new album between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.

Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.

The resolution source will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.

Will A$AP Rocky release an album in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a Justin Bieber song reaches #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 between September 4 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source will be Billboard.com.

Will a Justin Bieber song reach #1 this year?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Drake’s next officially released album debuts at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 albums chart for its first charted week following release. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Drake does not release a new album by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market may resolve as soon as Billboard publishes the first chart week in which the album appears.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Billboard (https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/).

Will Drake's next album debut No.1 on Billboard 200?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if BTS (방탄소년단) releases any new music track credited to the group between June 3 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The track must be publicly released through major music platforms (e.g., Spotify, Apple Music, or YouTube) and must be announced via official BTS or BigHit Music channels. The release must include new musical content; re-releases, remasters, or compilations of previously released songs do not count unless they contain newly recorded material.

Tracks released by individual members, sub-units, or under any designation other than "BTS" as a group will not count toward resolution.

The resolution source will be any official BTS streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.


Will BTS release any tracks in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed artist officially releases a new album between January 1 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.

Re-releases, deluxe editions, compilations, or greatest hits albums will not count, unless they contain at least 50% tracks that have never been officially released in any format prior to the album's release.

The resolution source will be any official streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.

Will Nettspend release an album by June 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a Sabrina Carpenter song reaches #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 between September 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source will be Billboard.com.

Will a Sabrina Carpenter song reach #1 again this year?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song released by GELO after March 31 is on the Billboard Hot 100 chart at any point between April 1, and December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Billboard (https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/).

Will GELO drop another Billboard top 100 hit in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed city records a daily snowfall of at least 0.1 inches for any day between December 1 and December 31, 2025, as recorded by the National Weather Service (NWS). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If a daily snowfall of at least 0.1 inches is recorded by the National Weather Service for the listed city, this market will resolve immediately to “Yes”. If no such snowfall has been recorded, this market may not resolve until the NWS Daily Climate Report for the listed city for December 31, 2025 has been published.

The relevant National Weather Service locations for this market will be Central Park NY (New York City), Dallas/Fort Worth, TX (Dallas), Miami, FL (Miami), Seattle-Tacoma, WA (Seattle), Washington-National (Washington D.C.), Phoenix, AZ (Phoenix), Philadelphia, PA (Philadelphia), Atlanta, GA (Atlanta), Boston (Logan Airport), MA (Boston), and Pittsburgh, PA (Pittsburgh).

The resolution source for this market will be the National Weather Service, specifically the figure for  "SNOWFALL (IN)" when "Daily Climate Report (CLI)"  is selected under "Observed Weather" after navigating to the relevant city & location from https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate.

Will it Snow in Seattle this December?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Will Jesus Christ return in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Britney Spears announces a new tour between December 29, 2024, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement that Britney Spears will go on tour within the stated timeframe will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when she actually does so.

The resolution source will be an announcement from Britney Spears or her official representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting.

Britney Spears tour in 2025?

If Kanye West visits Israel by December 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Kanye West physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of Israel. Whether or not Kanye West enters Israeli airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from Kanye West, information released by his verified social media accounts, and official information from Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Kanye visit Israel by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a new episode of the UpOnly podcast featuring the specified guest is publicly released by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

“Released” means the full episode is published and available to the general public on an official UpOnly platform (e.g. YouTube, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or the show’s official feed).

Previews, clips, teasers, or promotional material do not count toward resolution.

The resolution source will be the official UpOnly podcast channels and/or a consensus of credible public reporting.

Will Martin Shkreli appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?

In November, a song reported to be the product of an AI-generated artist reached the top of the Billboard's Country Digital Song Sales chart. (see: https://www.barrons.com/news/ai-country-song-rollicks-to-the-top-of-us-sales-chart-7fe99e8a)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any song widely reported to be entirely AI-generated reaches number 1 on any Billboard chart between November 13, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A song will be considered fully AI-generated if all vocals, musical composition, and production elements are created primarily by AI. Human actions such as prompting, mixing, and editing will not disqualify a song provided all audio content originates from AI.

Songs reported to have used AI-generated lyrics but not AI-generated voices, AI-assisted human vocals or instruments, or remixes, mash-ups, or covers using human-performed components will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will another AI-generated song reach number 1 on any Billboard chart by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if The Second Coming of Jesus Christ occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed song is played first by any performer during the Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

To qualify as "played" a performer must sing at least some of the lyrics of a specified song during this event.

If this event is cancelled or otherwise delayed beyond March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be footage of the Super Bowl LX halftime show, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will "LA MUDANZA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 23, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce married
- Taylor Swift pregnant
- Taylor Swift mentions Travis Kelce on her new album

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/TS.png

Nothing Ever Happens: Taylor Swift Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed song is played by any performer during the Super Bowl LX halftime show currently scheduled for February 8, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify as "played" a performer must sing at least some of the lyrics of a specified song during this event.

If this event is cancelled or otherwise delayed beyond March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be footage of the Super Bowl LIX halftime show, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will BAILE INOLVIDABLE be played at the Super Bowl halftime show?

The GRAMMY Awards are presented annually by the Recording Academy. For the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards, nominations are scheduled for November 7, 2025, and the ceremony for February 1, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed song that wins Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or in case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed song that comes first in alphabetical order.

The resolution source will be the television broadcast of the awards and the Grammy website (https://www.grammy.com/); however, other credible reporting may be used.

Will Golden (Ejae and Mark Sonnenblick) win Song of the Year at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards?

The Critics Choice Awards are presented annually by the American Critics Choice Association to honor achievements in film. For the Critics Choice Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced by December 5, 2025, followed by the ceremony on January 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed song that wins the Critics Choice Award for Best Song. 

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated song whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by January 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET,  this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Critics Choice Awards and the American Critics Choice Association, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.criticschoice.com/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Golden - HUNTR/X win Best Song at the 2026 Critics Choice Awards?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Blackpink (블랙핑크, BLɅϽKPIИK) officially releases a new album between June 3 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM PT (Los Angeles time). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Officially released means that a newly released album is officially available for download or streaming (not including live events) by the resolution date.

The resolution source will be any official Blackpink streaming or download site, e.g. Apple Music or Spotify.

Will BLɅϽKPIИK release an album before 2026?

The winners of the Steam Awards for 2025 will be chosen by community vote. Results will be announced on January 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the game which wins Best Soundtrack in the 2025 Steam Awards.

If for any reason no winner is declared by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In case of a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the game whose name comes first in alphabetical order.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Steam, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Best Soundtrack in the 2025 Steam Awards?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) hits 500 million subscribers by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.  Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) or a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is You'?

Market Context

Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is You'?

Rules

Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is You'?

Market Context

Will Spotify's top song on Christmas be 'All I Want For Christmas Is You'?

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