Market icon
Economy·Macro Indicators

Will SOFR hit __ in March?

Market icon
Economy·Macro Indicators

Will SOFR hit __ in March?

Mar 31

Mar 31

$19,774 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$19,774 Vol.

Polymarket

↑3.80

$2,351 Vol.

<1%

↑3.78%

$1,955 Vol.

<1%

↑3.76%

$955 Vol.

<1%

↑3.74%

$1,763 Vol.

<1%

↑3.72%

$2,857 Vol.

<1%

↓3.60%

$5,221 Vol.

<1%

↓3.58%

$4,673 Vol.

<1%

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr. Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or below the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or below the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr. Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or below the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr. Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket for SOFR threshold breaches in March reflects the Federal Reserve's steady monetary policy, with the FOMC holding the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% on March 18 amid cooling inflation (PCE forecast upgraded to 2.7%) and resilient labor markets. Daily SOFR rates remained tightly range-bound between 3.62% and 3.75%, averaging approximately 3.65% for the 30-day period ending March 31, anchored by the 3.65% interest rate on reserve balances and ample repo liquidity absent quarter-end stresses. Upcoming April 10 CPI data and nonfarm payrolls release will inform the April 29-30 FOMC path, with futures implying limited near-term volatility around current 3.64% effective fed funds levels.

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr.

Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Volume
$19,774
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 4, 2026, 10:28 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr. Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.

Outcome proposed: No

Dispute window

Final

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr. Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or below the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or below the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr. Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or below the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr. Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.Trader consensus on Polymarket for SOFR threshold breaches in March reflects the Federal Reserve's steady monetary policy, with the FOMC holding the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% on March 18 amid cooling inflation (PCE forecast upgraded to 2.7%) and resilient labor markets. Daily SOFR rates remained tightly range-bound between 3.62% and 3.75%, averaging approximately 3.65% for the 30-day period ending March 31, anchored by the 3.65% interest rate on reserve balances and ample repo liquidity absent quarter-end stresses. Upcoming April 10 CPI data and nonfarm payrolls release will inform the April 29-30 FOMC path, with futures implying limited near-term volatility around current 3.64% effective fed funds levels.

The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr.

Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.
Volume
$19,774
End Date
Mar 31, 2026
Market Opened
Mar 4, 2026, 10:28 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is a measure of the cost of borrowing cash overnight, collateralized by US Treasury securities. SOFR is used to price loans, bonds, derivatives, and more. The SOFR rate is published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York each business day at 8:00 AM ET, for the previous business day. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Federal Reserve Bank of New York publishes a daily SOFR rate (%) equal to or above the listed value for any business day between March 1 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as the SOFR rate is equal to or above the listed value during the specified period, or when SOFR data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026. If no data is published for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 by April 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Business day refers to any day treated as such by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Any revisions to the daily SOFR values published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York prior to the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will be considered; however, these revisions will not disqualify a previously published SOFR rate from counting. Any revisions published after the release of SOFR data for the final business day on or before March 31, 2026 will not be considered. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, specifically the Secured Overnight Financing Rate Data table at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/reference-rates/sofr. Note: This market’s resolution source publishes the SOFR rate to two decimal places (e.g. 3.65%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market.

Outcome proposed: No

Dispute window

Final

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will SOFR hit __ in March?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↓3.68%" at 100%, followed by "↓3.66%" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will SOFR hit __ in March?" has generated $19.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will SOFR hit __ in March?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Will SOFR hit __ in March?" is "↓3.68%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "↓3.66%" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Will SOFR hit __ in March?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.