Russian forces have intensified localized offensive operations around Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast through infantry infiltrations on the southern outskirts, glide bomb strikes, and incremental gains in nearby villages such as Novoandriivka and Novoselivka. Ukrainian units have responded by eliminating multiple Russian sabotage and assault groups, demolishing bridges to disrupt logistics, and maintaining control over the town and key defensive lines. Russian military analysts have described claims of full control as premature, noting ongoing flank pressure rather than urban dominance. These developments, combined with Ukrainian counter-infiltration efforts and constrained Russian force concentrations, align with trader consensus assigning low implied probabilities to Russian capture of the Orikhiv train station by late 2026 deadlines. Upcoming winter conditions and any shifts in broader frontline resource allocation could influence further probes.