Russian forces maintain pressure on Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia Oblast through small-group infantry infiltrations and flank probes from the south and southeast, including repeated attempts around Novoandriivka and nearby settlements, but Ukrainian units have repelled most incursions and stabilized defensive lines as of early October 2026. Ukrainian reports describe the sector as difficult yet controlled, with no confirmed shifts in the line of contact and successful elimination of sabotage elements. Russia has concentrated roughly 120 assault groups and substantial manpower in the broader direction, yet analysts note these efforts have not produced urban footholds or encirclement. Trader consensus on low near-term capture probabilities reflects the absence of decisive breakthroughs despite sustained artillery, drone, and glide-bomb activity, alongside Ukrainian counter-moves that continue to constrain advances.