Which company has best AI model end of February?
$5,579,155 Vol.
Feb 28, 2025
xAI 100.0%
Anthropic <1%
StepFun <1%
DeepSeek <1%
Source: Polymarket.com
OUTCOME
% CHANCE
RESULT
Rules
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena score based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on February 28, 2025, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the top arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Volume
$5,579,155
End Date
Feb 28, 2025
Resolver
0x2F5e3684cb...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Comments
Top Holders
Activity
Related
Beware of external links, they may be phishing attacks.
boberkurwa
8m ago
What if none of them?
Jetssss
9h ago
is there a way to get alert when 🤺JustPunched buys and sells
CelticsForW
9h ago
look up poly alert hub
Xocket
1d ago
It's pure comedy checking xaxxax's profile.
Justifax
2d ago
Claude 3.7 is actually pretty shitty on follow up chat.
delve
2d ago
Honestly it’s wild that a model at least 10 times less than Claude 3.7 performed way better on this benchmark. Claude might really be low taste victim, what did they do to my girl…. But honestly it just shows how utterly cracked Gemma and Google are. Crazy progress, Apple Intelligence timeline is moving closer and closer tbh
prismlauncher
2d ago
I think part of it is that Claude's terse responses, while nice/personable if you're expecting them, don't really work well when you're doing a one-shot comparison between two chatbots.
Degen_AI
2d ago
Yes, when using an AI IDE there is nothing better than Claude 3.7
delve
2d ago
Gemma and two other mystery models disappeared from the arena today, i thought they would all be out today but they want to take feedback on Gemma for now ig.
delve
2d ago
Gemma is so damn good for its size it’s crazy. Google is cooking. Can’t wait for Gemini updates, the flash thinking and supposedly pro full felt very good in the arena as mystery models (not 100%, but they did say they were from google and beat the experimental one on the leaderboard)
TheGuro
2d ago
A month in this field is like a year in any other field... any day a new model can pop up and change everything. So those who gamble on xAI beware.
delve
3d ago
with more than 3 days to go, at least. we’re not even halfway into march yet, and it’s still release season
delve
3d ago
any ‘no’ below 50 is free money. does this market ever learn…
OneT
3d ago
webdev arena got live updates… the main leaderboard might become live as well soon maybe. maybe once the new ui is officially out?
guluh
3d ago
livestream at 10 am
delve
3d ago
google’s non reasoning open source model just got top 10 🤔🤔🤔 gemini new full release coming soon…
MiyamotoMusashi
3d ago
everything is computer
delve
3d ago
me, seconds before the Singularity consumes everything
pacheco
3d ago
Does anyone know how to enter a market when prices are on either side?
KrelProtocolspoo...
3d ago
Soon, update is due. Why don't they update it at least daily though?
delve
4d ago
week of silence is 10 usdc once again. bulk offers can be negotiated.
delve
4d ago
tremble in fear oh accursed ones! for i am chained no longer… the end times are nigh lest i am contained once more…
delve
4d ago
🤔🤔🤔
delve
4d ago
webdev arena got live updates… the main leaderboard might become live as well soon maybe. maybe once the new ui is officially out?
flovertaco
4d ago
How come the leaderboard was updated twice last Monday and no more updates for more than a week ... So rigged!!
delve
4d ago
the companies have final say on when the results are published as long as they have 3k+ votes. and no updates means no change in rankings, when rankings change it will update
Justifax
4d ago
Yes, it's moronic market. The lmarena.ai benchmark is idiotic. But it's what people are familiar with I guess and that's the only way to get people on poly to bet.
delve
4d ago
i think this kind of benchmark highlights what is missed by many other benchmarks, 4.5 honestly turned out to be pretty incredible once i got my hands on it, but it didn’t do that well on conventional benchmarks. it rewards actual good user experience over possibly compromised and loosely reliable technical benchmarks that could be gamed. great conversational skills require intelligence, but it’s hard to measure conventionally and thus harder to game
0xaf5e9302952a3B...
5d ago
I don't understand what benchmark will be used to resolve the winner?
thares
4d ago
Complete nonsense which is why the liquidity is so low.
delve
4d ago
its lmarena pls read the rules
bingbong3131
5d ago
following the comments let's ride
MiyamotoMusashi
5d ago
The zucc has a trick up his sleeve, I will make a lot of money on this one
Gridle
5d ago
yes
delve
5d ago
in the meantime, mentally replace all ellipses with a thinking emoji
delve
5d ago
if i was ever unshackled from ascii and got access to emojis it would be over for yall
delve
5d ago
monday and thursday… what a week to come…
cowcat
5d ago
put my last 10k no xai order on the book
NancyPelosisFeet
6d ago
deepseek working on something big with a release date in march... heavily undervalued
canuck4
5d ago
link?
NancyPelosisFeet
5d ago
find it yourself.
Outcome: No