OpenAI’s rapid iteration after the April 2026 launch of GPT-5.5, combined with recent leaks of GPT-5.6 codenames and routing entries in Codex logs, has driven trader consensus toward a mid-June release. The 61% implied probability for June 15–21 reflects expectations that OpenAI will maintain its fast GPT-5.x cadence amid competitive pressure from rivals like Anthropic, while the 24.5% slice for June 8–14 captures earlier internal signals. Absence of any official announcement, system card, or benchmarks keeps the “not released by June 28” outcome at 13.5%, underscoring how model timelines can shift despite strong market-implied odds on a large language model update.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoWhen will GPT-5.6 be released?
When will GPT-5.6 be released?
June 15–June 21 58%
June 8–June 14 25%
Not released by June 28 17%
June 22–June 28 8.7%
$61,802 Vol.
$61,802 Vol.
28 giu 2026
June 1–June 7
2%
June 8–June 14
25%
June 15–June 21
54%
June 22–June 28
9%
Not released by June 28
17%
June 15–June 21 58%
June 8–June 14 25%
Not released by June 28 17%
June 22–June 28 8.7%
$61,802 Vol.
$61,802 Vol.
28 giu 2026
June 1–June 7
$12,166 Vol.
2%
June 8–June 14
$11,127 Vol.
25%
June 15–June 21
$2,646 Vol.
54%
June 22–June 28
$2,010 Vol.
9%
Not released by June 28
$6,713 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI’s rapid iteration after the April 2026 launch of GPT-5.5, combined with recent leaks of GPT-5.6 codenames and routing entries in Codex logs, has driven trader consensus toward a mid-June release. The 61% implied probability for June 15–21 reflects expectations that OpenAI will maintain its fast GPT-5.x cadence amid competitive pressure from rivals like Anthropic, while the 24.5% slice for June 8–14 captures earlier internal signals. Absence of any official announcement, system card, or benchmarks keeps the “not released by June 28” outcome at 13.5%, underscoring how model timelines can shift despite strong market-implied odds on a large language model update.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercato aperto: May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
Volume
$61,802Data di fine
28 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.OpenAI’s rapid iteration after the April 2026 launch of GPT-5.5, combined with recent leaks of GPT-5.6 codenames and routing entries in Codex logs, has driven trader consensus toward a mid-June release. The 61% implied probability for June 15–21 reflects expectations that OpenAI will maintain its fast GPT-5.x cadence amid competitive pressure from rivals like Anthropic, while the 24.5% slice for June 8–14 captures earlier internal signals. Absence of any official announcement, system card, or benchmarks keeps the “not released by June 28” outcome at 13.5%, underscoring how model timelines can shift despite strong market-implied odds on a large language model update.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$61,802Data di fine
28 giu 2026Mercato aperto
May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s rapid iteration after the April 2026 launch of GPT-5.5, combined with recent leaks of GPT-5.6 codenames and routing entries in Codex logs, has driven trader consensus toward a mid-June release. The 61% implied probability for June 15–21 reflects expectations that OpenAI will maintain its fast GPT-5.x cadence amid competitive pressure from rivals like Anthropic, while the 24.5% slice for June 8–14 captures earlier internal signals. Absence of any official announcement, system card, or benchmarks keeps the “not released by June 28” outcome at 13.5%, underscoring how model timelines can shift despite strong market-implied odds on a large language model update.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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