Moonshot AI released its flagship Kimi K3 model on July 16, 2026—a 2.8-trillion-parameter sparse MoE with native vision, 1M-token context, and Kimi Delta Attention architecture—followed by open weights on July 27 under a custom license. The model quickly ranked among the top open-weight systems globally, rivaling or exceeding several closed U.S. frontier models on coding, agentic, and long-horizon benchmarks while undercutting their pricing. This rapid cadence (following K2.6 in April and K2.7 Code in June) has established trader expectations for continued scaling. As of early September 2026, K4 remains in active development with no official announcement, model card, or release window; credible reporting indicates Moonshot is securing additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor. Key near-term catalysts include any compute updates, internal leaks, or conference statements that could clarify timelines and shift implied probabilities on resolution criteria such as parameter scale or capability thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$17,498 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31, 2026
3%
December 31, 2026
13%
$17,498 Vol.
October 31, 2026
$9,489 Vol.
3%
December 31, 2026
$8,010 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI released its flagship Kimi K3 model on July 16, 2026—a 2.8-trillion-parameter sparse MoE with native vision, 1M-token context, and Kimi Delta Attention architecture—followed by open weights on July 27 under a custom license. The model quickly ranked among the top open-weight systems globally, rivaling or exceeding several closed U.S. frontier models on coding, agentic, and long-horizon benchmarks while undercutting their pricing. This rapid cadence (following K2.6 in April and K2.7 Code in June) has established trader expectations for continued scaling. As of early September 2026, K4 remains in active development with no official announcement, model card, or release window; credible reporting indicates Moonshot is securing additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor. Key near-term catalysts include any compute updates, internal leaks, or conference statements that could clarify timelines and shift implied probabilities on resolution criteria such as parameter scale or capability thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ET
Volume
$17,498End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Moonshot AI released its flagship Kimi K3 model on July 16, 2026—a 2.8-trillion-parameter sparse MoE with native vision, 1M-token context, and Kimi Delta Attention architecture—followed by open weights on July 27 under a custom license. The model quickly ranked among the top open-weight systems globally, rivaling or exceeding several closed U.S. frontier models on coding, agentic, and long-horizon benchmarks while undercutting their pricing. This rapid cadence (following K2.6 in April and K2.7 Code in June) has established trader expectations for continued scaling. As of early September 2026, K4 remains in active development with no official announcement, model card, or release window; credible reporting indicates Moonshot is securing additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor. Key near-term catalysts include any compute updates, internal leaks, or conference statements that could clarify timelines and shift implied probabilities on resolution criteria such as parameter scale or capability thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Moonshot AI’s Kimi K4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Kimi K4 refers to a product explicitly named Kimi K4 (e.g., Kimi K4.0 would count), or one that is recognized as the new flagship model or a successor to Kimi K3.0, consistent with the progression from Kimi K2 to Kimi K3. The release of any model within the Kimi K4 family will qualify as “Kimi K4”.
Products labeled as Kimi K3.5 or similar incremental versions will not count for this market’s resolution.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Moonshot AI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Moonshot AI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$17,498End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Moonshot AI released its flagship Kimi K3 model on July 16, 2026—a 2.8-trillion-parameter sparse MoE with native vision, 1M-token context, and Kimi Delta Attention architecture—followed by open weights on July 27 under a custom license. The model quickly ranked among the top open-weight systems globally, rivaling or exceeding several closed U.S. frontier models on coding, agentic, and long-horizon benchmarks while undercutting their pricing. This rapid cadence (following K2.6 in April and K2.7 Code in June) has established trader expectations for continued scaling. As of early September 2026, K4 remains in active development with no official announcement, model card, or release window; credible reporting indicates Moonshot is securing additional Nvidia Blackwell capacity for a significantly larger successor. Key near-term catalysts include any compute updates, internal leaks, or conference statements that could clarify timelines and shift implied probabilities on resolution criteria such as parameter scale or capability thresholds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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