Meta's recent Muse Spark 1.3 release on September 2, featuring a 1M-token context window and competitive agentic benchmarks, has driven its 62.5% implied probability as the leading #2 AI lab outcome on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by September 30. Traders view Meta's closed-weights API strategy, rapid iteration from prior Llama lines, and strong developer adoption as key momentum factors positioning it ahead of clustered 50% outcomes like several unnamed labs. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra launch and Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 updates, while advancing frontier capabilities, appear priced lower due to their likely #1 positioning or differing style profiles under controlled evaluations. Upcoming resolution hinges on final leaderboard snapshots, with Meta's ongoing safety-tested features and ecosystem integration as primary swing catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMeta 63%
OpenAI 15%
Anthropic 6.9%
Google 5%
$67,869 Vol.
$67,869 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Meta
63%
OpenAI
15%
Anthropic
7%
5%
SpaceXAI
1%
Z.ai
1%
Alibaba
1%
ByteDance
1%
Moonshot
1%
MiniMax
1%
StepFun
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Thinky
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Meta 63%
OpenAI 15%
Anthropic 6.9%
Google 5%
$67,869 Vol.
$67,869 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Meta
$19,863 Vol.
63%
OpenAI
$13,924 Vol.
15%
Anthropic
$3,536 Vol.
7%
$9,206 Vol.
5%
SpaceXAI
$1,190 Vol.
1%
Z.ai
$1,284 Vol.
1%
Alibaba
$4,728 Vol.
1%
ByteDance
$943 Vol.
1%
Moonshot
$1,526 Vol.
1%
MiniMax
$1,573 Vol.
1%
StepFun
$1,111 Vol.
1%
DeepSeek
$1,342 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$1,110 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$1,082 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,296 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$645 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$460 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$820 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$665 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$733 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$831 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta's recent Muse Spark 1.3 release on September 2, featuring a 1M-token context window and competitive agentic benchmarks, has driven its 62.5% implied probability as the leading #2 AI lab outcome on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by September 30. Traders view Meta's closed-weights API strategy, rapid iteration from prior Llama lines, and strong developer adoption as key momentum factors positioning it ahead of clustered 50% outcomes like several unnamed labs. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra launch and Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 updates, while advancing frontier capabilities, appear priced lower due to their likely #1 positioning or differing style profiles under controlled evaluations. Upcoming resolution hinges on final leaderboard snapshots, with Meta's ongoing safety-tested features and ecosystem integration as primary swing catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Volume
$67,869End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta's recent Muse Spark 1.3 release on September 2, featuring a 1M-token context window and competitive agentic benchmarks, has driven its 62.5% implied probability as the leading #2 AI lab outcome on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by September 30. Traders view Meta's closed-weights API strategy, rapid iteration from prior Llama lines, and strong developer adoption as key momentum factors positioning it ahead of clustered 50% outcomes like several unnamed labs. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra launch and Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 updates, while advancing frontier capabilities, appear priced lower due to their likely #1 positioning or differing style profiles under controlled evaluations. Upcoming resolution hinges on final leaderboard snapshots, with Meta's ongoing safety-tested features and ecosystem integration as primary swing catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on September 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$67,869End Date
Oct 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Meta's recent Muse Spark 1.3 release on September 2, featuring a 1M-token context window and competitive agentic benchmarks, has driven its 62.5% implied probability as the leading #2 AI lab outcome on the arena.ai Text Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by September 30. Traders view Meta's closed-weights API strategy, rapid iteration from prior Llama lines, and strong developer adoption as key momentum factors positioning it ahead of clustered 50% outcomes like several unnamed labs. OpenAI's GPT-6 Astra launch and Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 updates, while advancing frontier capabilities, appear priced lower due to their likely #1 positioning or differing style profiles under controlled evaluations. Upcoming resolution hinges on final leaderboard snapshots, with Meta's ongoing safety-tested features and ecosystem integration as primary swing catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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