Trader consensus strongly favors "Other" at 100% implied probability because recent benchmarks position models outside the listed Claude variants as leaders, with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol posting the top overall score of 57.2 on LLM Stats as of August 7, 2026, ahead of Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5. This reflects ongoing frontier competition where OpenAI and Google have delivered iterative gains in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks through models like GPT-5.6 and Gemini 3.1 Pro, outpacing the specific Claude Opus 4.6 and Fable 5 releases in aggregated evaluations. The market's skin-in-the-game pricing captures this reality rather than any single benchmark. A last-minute Anthropic update, new capability demonstration, or shift in resolution criteria around release timing or specific tasks could still alter the outcome before final settlement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOther 100.0%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
claude-fable-5 <1%
$112,354 Vol.
$112,354 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
No
claude-opus-4-6
No
claude-fable-5
No
Other
Yes
Other 100.0%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking <1%
claude-opus-4-6 <1%
claude-fable-5 <1%
$112,354 Vol.
$112,354 Vol.
Aug 10, 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$35,597 Vol.
No
claude-opus-4-6
$4,336 Vol.
No
claude-fable-5
$12,266 Vol.
No
Other
$60,155 Vol.
Yes
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus strongly favors "Other" at 100% implied probability because recent benchmarks position models outside the listed Claude variants as leaders, with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol posting the top overall score of 57.2 on LLM Stats as of August 7, 2026, ahead of Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5. This reflects ongoing frontier competition where OpenAI and Google have delivered iterative gains in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks through models like GPT-5.6 and Gemini 3.1 Pro, outpacing the specific Claude Opus 4.6 and Fable 5 releases in aggregated evaluations. The market's skin-in-the-game pricing captures this reality rather than any single benchmark. A last-minute Anthropic update, new capability demonstration, or shift in resolution criteria around release timing or specific tasks could still alter the outcome before final settlement.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 6:57 PM ET
Volume
$112,354End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Trader consensus strongly favors "Other" at 100% implied probability because recent benchmarks position models outside the listed Claude variants as leaders, with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol posting the top overall score of 57.2 on LLM Stats as of August 7, 2026, ahead of Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5. This reflects ongoing frontier competition where OpenAI and Google have delivered iterative gains in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks through models like GPT-5.6 and Gemini 3.1 Pro, outpacing the specific Claude Opus 4.6 and Fable 5 releases in aggregated evaluations. The market's skin-in-the-game pricing captures this reality rather than any single benchmark. A last-minute Anthropic update, new capability demonstration, or shift in resolution criteria around release timing or specific tasks could still alter the outcome before final settlement.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$112,354End Date
Aug 10, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 6:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Trader consensus strongly favors "Other" at 100% implied probability because recent benchmarks position models outside the listed Claude variants as leaders, with OpenAI's GPT-5.6 Sol posting the top overall score of 57.2 on LLM Stats as of August 7, 2026, ahead of Claude Opus 5 and Fable 5. This reflects ongoing frontier competition where OpenAI and Google have delivered iterative gains in reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks through models like GPT-5.6 and Gemini 3.1 Pro, outpacing the specific Claude Opus 4.6 and Fable 5 releases in aggregated evaluations. The market's skin-in-the-game pricing captures this reality rather than any single benchmark. A last-minute Anthropic update, new capability demonstration, or shift in resolution criteria around release timing or specific tasks could still alter the outcome before final settlement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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