Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Gold (GC) settling below $4,750 in March 2026, anchored by the official CME Group settlement price of $4,492 on March 27—well under the threshold after a 14% monthly plunge from early highs near $5,600. This correction reflects a surging U.S. dollar index, scaled-back Fed funds rate cut bets amid persistent inflation readings like February 2026 CPI, and reduced safe-haven demand despite Middle East tensions, as equities drew capital flows. The 0.1% tail risk on $5,750+ captures negligible liquidity; realistic challenges would demand a rare CME data revision or resolution dispute, improbable given verified settlements. April nonfarm payrolls loom as a catalyst for forward gold futures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated<$4,750 100.0%
$4,750-$4,875 <1%
$4,875-$5,000 <1%
$5,000-$5,125 <1%
$183,959 Vol.
$183,959 Vol.
<$4,750
Yes
$4,750-$4,875
No
$4,875-$5,000
No
$5,000-$5,125
No
$5,125-$5,250
No
$5,250-$5,375
No
$5,375-$5,500
No
$5,500-$5,625
No
$5,625-$5,750
No
$5,750+
No
<$4,750 100.0%
$4,750-$4,875 <1%
$4,875-$5,000 <1%
$5,000-$5,125 <1%
$183,959 Vol.
$183,959 Vol.
<$4,750
Yes
$4,750-$4,875
No
$4,875-$5,000
No
$5,000-$5,125
No
$5,125-$5,250
No
$5,250-$5,375
No
$5,375-$5,500
No
$5,500-$5,625
No
$5,625-$5,750
No
$5,750+
No
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Market Opened: Mar 3, 2026, 2:56 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 100% implied probability to Gold (GC) settling below $4,750 in March 2026, anchored by the official CME Group settlement price of $4,492 on March 27—well under the threshold after a 14% monthly plunge from early highs near $5,600. This correction reflects a surging U.S. dollar index, scaled-back Fed funds rate cut bets amid persistent inflation readings like February 2026 CPI, and reduced safe-haven demand despite Middle East tensions, as equities drew capital flows. The 0.1% tail risk on $5,750+ captures negligible liquidity; realistic challenges would demand a rare CME data revision or resolution dispute, improbable given verified settlements. April nonfarm payrolls loom as a catalyst for forward gold futures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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