The US military capture of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026 elevated Delcy Rodríguez to acting president via Supreme Court order, yet chavista institutions, military command, and National Assembly structures have preserved continuity under her interim government. Ongoing US-backed talks with opposition factions, including the 2015 National Assembly led by Dinorah Figuera, focus on Supreme Court reform and prisoner releases without setting an election date, keeping presidential polls uncertain until at least 2030 under constitutional timelines. Traders assign Maduro the highest implied probability due to the regime’s entrenched networks and absence of a decisive transition, while Rodríguez ranks second as the current de facto authority. Opposition figures such as María Corina Machado remain sidelined, limiting near-term shifts in leadership.