The closely contested Texas Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, with recent polls showing margins under five points and frequent leads under 3 points, drives trader focus on turnout in the 9.2M–10.4M range. Both campaigns and allied groups are intensifying voter mobilization, early voting outreach, and targeting of suburban independents, Hispanic voters, and younger demographics ahead of November 3. High primary participation, open-seat dynamics after the Republican runoff, and historical midterm patterns sustain uncertainty between strong base turnout and potential crossover or drop-off voting. Late polling shifts, differential ad effectiveness, or Election Day conditions could separate the leading bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated9.6M-10M 27%
10M-10.4M 19%
9.2M-9.6M 18%
11.2M+ 10.2%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<8M
5%
8M-8.4M
4%
8.4M-8.8M
5%
8.8M-9.2M
4%
9.2M-9.6M
18%
9.6M-10M
27%
10M-10.4M
19%
10.4M-10.8M
8%
10.8M-11.2M
5%
11.2M+
13%
9.6M-10M 27%
10M-10.4M 19%
9.2M-9.6M 18%
11.2M+ 10.2%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<8M
$348 Vol.
5%
8M-8.4M
$200 Vol.
4%
8.4M-8.8M
$202 Vol.
5%
8.8M-9.2M
$361 Vol.
4%
9.2M-9.6M
$299 Vol.
18%
9.6M-10M
$1,731 Vol.
27%
10M-10.4M
$338 Vol.
19%
10.4M-10.8M
$727 Vol.
8%
10.8M-11.2M
$206 Vol.
5%
11.2M+
$303 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely contested Texas Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, with recent polls showing margins under five points and frequent leads under 3 points, drives trader focus on turnout in the 9.2M–10.4M range. Both campaigns and allied groups are intensifying voter mobilization, early voting outreach, and targeting of suburban independents, Hispanic voters, and younger demographics ahead of November 3. High primary participation, open-seat dynamics after the Republican runoff, and historical midterm patterns sustain uncertainty between strong base turnout and potential crossover or drop-off voting. Late polling shifts, differential ad effectiveness, or Election Day conditions could separate the leading bins.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volume
$4,716End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely contested Texas Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, with recent polls showing margins under five points and frequent leads under 3 points, drives trader focus on turnout in the 9.2M–10.4M range. Both campaigns and allied groups are intensifying voter mobilization, early voting outreach, and targeting of suburban independents, Hispanic voters, and younger demographics ahead of November 3. High primary participation, open-seat dynamics after the Republican runoff, and historical midterm patterns sustain uncertainty between strong base turnout and potential crossover or drop-off voting. Late polling shifts, differential ad effectiveness, or Election Day conditions could separate the leading bins.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Texas, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$4,716End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely contested Texas Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico, with recent polls showing margins under five points and frequent leads under 3 points, drives trader focus on turnout in the 9.2M–10.4M range. Both campaigns and allied groups are intensifying voter mobilization, early voting outreach, and targeting of suburban independents, Hispanic voters, and younger demographics ahead of November 3. High primary participation, open-seat dynamics after the Republican runoff, and historical midterm patterns sustain uncertainty between strong base turnout and potential crossover or drop-off voting. Late polling shifts, differential ad effectiveness, or Election Day conditions could separate the leading bins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
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