The closely matched trader probabilities around 400K–500K total votes in West Virginia’s November 3 Senate contest reflect the race’s Safe Republican rating and limited national mobilization. Incumbent Shelley Moore Capito faces Democrat Rachel Fetty Anderson in a low-enthusiasm environment shaped by rural demographics, an older electorate, and modest historical midterm participation. Recent primary data showed continued GOP registration gains alongside lower overall turnout, while the absence of competitive dynamics reduces get-out-the-vote intensity from both parties. Early voting begins October 21, with registration closing October 13; any late-cycle national developments or shifts in base enthusiasm could adjust volumes within the leading brackets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated450K-500K 45%
400K-450K 36%
500K-550K 18%
<400K 3.1%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<400K
3%
400K-450K
36%
450K-500K
45%
500K-550K
18%
550K-600K
3%
600K-650K
3%
650K+
<1%
450K-500K 45%
400K-450K 36%
500K-550K 18%
<400K 3.1%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
<400K
$203 Vol.
3%
400K-450K
$941 Vol.
36%
450K-500K
$1,319 Vol.
45%
500K-550K
$411 Vol.
18%
550K-600K
$189 Vol.
3%
600K-650K
$205 Vol.
3%
650K+
$173 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely matched trader probabilities around 400K–500K total votes in West Virginia’s November 3 Senate contest reflect the race’s Safe Republican rating and limited national mobilization. Incumbent Shelley Moore Capito faces Democrat Rachel Fetty Anderson in a low-enthusiasm environment shaped by rural demographics, an older electorate, and modest historical midterm participation. Recent primary data showed continued GOP registration gains alongside lower overall turnout, while the absence of competitive dynamics reduces get-out-the-vote intensity from both parties. Early voting begins October 21, with registration closing October 13; any late-cycle national developments or shifts in base enthusiasm could adjust volumes within the leading brackets.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 10:27 AM ET
Volume
$3,442End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely matched trader probabilities around 400K–500K total votes in West Virginia’s November 3 Senate contest reflect the race’s Safe Republican rating and limited national mobilization. Incumbent Shelley Moore Capito faces Democrat Rachel Fetty Anderson in a low-enthusiasm environment shaped by rural demographics, an older electorate, and modest historical midterm participation. Recent primary data showed continued GOP registration gains alongside lower overall turnout, while the absence of competitive dynamics reduces get-out-the-vote intensity from both parties. Early voting begins October 21, with registration closing October 13; any late-cycle national developments or shifts in base enthusiasm could adjust volumes within the leading brackets.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from West Virginia, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,442End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched trader probabilities around 400K–500K total votes in West Virginia’s November 3 Senate contest reflect the race’s Safe Republican rating and limited national mobilization. Incumbent Shelley Moore Capito faces Democrat Rachel Fetty Anderson in a low-enthusiasm environment shaped by rural demographics, an older electorate, and modest historical midterm participation. Recent primary data showed continued GOP registration gains alongside lower overall turnout, while the absence of competitive dynamics reduces get-out-the-vote intensity from both parties. Early voting begins October 21, with registration closing October 13; any late-cycle national developments or shifts in base enthusiasm could adjust volumes within the leading brackets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedRelated
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Virginia be less than 2,500,000?
44%
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Wyoming be between 190,000 and 210,000?
51%
Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Kentucky be between 1,600,000 and 1,700,000?
54%
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions