**Maryland’s 2026 gubernatorial contest features incumbent Democrat Wes Moore facing Republican Dan Cox in a rematch widely viewed as noncompetitive.** Recent University of Maryland polling shows Moore leading by roughly 27 points among likely voters, consistent with the state’s strong Democratic lean and Moore’s primary performance. Primary turnout in June reached only about 24 percent of eligible voters—the lowest since 2014—due to closed primaries and limited competition. General-election sentiment centers on whether high reported enthusiasm (79 percent of likely voters in the latest survey) and expanded early/mail options will lift participation near or above the roughly 1.94 million total ballots cast in 2022. Traders price the 1.85–2.15 million range most heavily because safe-seat dynamics and historical midterm patterns in Maryland limit upside or downside surprises absent major late shifts in mobilization or weather.