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icon for Illinois Senate Election: Turnout
Politics·Turnout

Illinois Senate Election: Turnout

icon for Illinois Senate Election: Turnout
Politics·Turnout

Illinois Senate Election: Turnout

4.25M-4.5M 38%

4M-4.25M 33%

4.5M-4.75M 15%

3.75M-4M 13%

Polymarket

$10,152 Vol.

4.25M-4.5M 38%

4M-4.25M 33%

4.5M-4.75M 15%

3.75M-4M 13%

Polymarket

$10,152 Vol.

<3.25M

$729 Vol.

6%

3.25M-3.5M

$1,667 Vol.

1%

3.5M-3.75M

$601 Vol.

4%

3.75M-4M

$471 Vol.

13%

4M-4.25M

$2,160 Vol.

33%

4.25M-4.5M

$1,800 Vol.

38%

4.5M-4.75M

$1,758 Vol.

15%

4.75M+

$967 Vol.

4%

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus centers on 4–4.5 million votes cast in the November 3, 2026, Illinois U.S. Senate election, with the two leading bins (4–4.25M and 4.25–4.5M) holding the bulk of probability.** This reflects a safe Democratic contest featuring Juliana Stratton against Don Tracy in an open seat previously held by Dick Durbin. Illinois midterm turnout has historically ranged from roughly 4.1 million in 2022 to 5.7 million in the 2024 presidential year, and the current lopsided race rating limits enthusiasm-driven spikes. Recent Democratic primary participation exceeded 2022 levels, hinting at possible base mobilization, yet the general-election environment lacks the competitiveness that typically boosts overall participation. Key variables that could shift the distribution include early-voting and absentee-ballot trends, GOTV intensity from both parties, and any late national or state developments affecting voter engagement.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10,152
End Date
Apr 1, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47de9d...
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Trader consensus centers on 4–4.5 million votes cast in the November 3, 2026, Illinois U.S. Senate election, with the two leading bins (4–4.25M and 4.25–4.5M) holding the bulk of probability.** This reflects a safe Democratic contest featuring Juliana Stratton against Don Tracy in an open seat previously held by Dick Durbin. Illinois midterm turnout has historically ranged from roughly 4.1 million in 2022 to 5.7 million in the 2024 presidential year, and the current lopsided race rating limits enthusiasm-driven spikes. Recent Democratic primary participation exceeded 2022 levels, hinting at possible base mobilization, yet the general-election environment lacks the competitiveness that typically boosts overall participation. Key variables that could shift the distribution include early-voting and absentee-ballot trends, GOTV intensity from both parties, and any late national or state developments affecting voter engagement.

This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Illinois, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$10,152
End Date
Apr 1, 2027
Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 10:19 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47de9d...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Illinois Senate Election: Turnout" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4.25M-4.5M" at 38%, followed by "4M-4.25M" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 38¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Illinois Senate Election: Turnout" has generated $10.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Aug 18, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Illinois Senate Election: Turnout," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Illinois Senate Election: Turnout" is "4.25M-4.5M" at 38%, meaning the market assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4M-4.25M" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Illinois Senate Election: Turnout" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.