PP leads forecasts for the single Ceuta congressional seat in Spain’s November 29 general election, reflecting consistent polling advantages of roughly 4–6 points over Vox and larger margins over PSOE. A July–August 2026 migration surge and subsequent security strains eroded PSOE support in the enclave, shifting former voters toward PP while Vox capitalized on sovereignty and border themes. Recent local budget passage highlighted PSOE internal fractures, further weakening its position. PP’s candidacy cleared electoral board review after a PSOE challenge, removing a procedural hurdle ahead of the campaign start. Voter surveys project PP vote shares near 35 percent, with seat-winning probabilities in the 52–63 percent range across models; Vox trails closely enough to remain the primary challenger, while PSOE, Podemos, and smaller lists register minimal support.