Name: Sam back as CEO of OpenAI?
Start: 2023-11-18T06:39:56.746Z
End: 2023-12-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman resumes his role as CEO of OpenAI by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2023. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be official statements from OpenAI and Sam Altman, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.

Sam back as CEO of OpenAI?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman formally takes equity in OpenAI by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Taking equity is defined as Sam Altman acquiring or being granted shares, stock options, or any other form of ownership interest in OpenAI.

Any pre-existing interest held through Y Combinator's investment fund or other indirect holdings made prior to Altman becoming full-time at OpenAI will not count toward this market's resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where OpenAI is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between OpenAI and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Sam Altman and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

OpenAI acquired in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that Elon Musk, either personally or through an entity led by him, enters into an agreement to buy OpenAI (or the nonprofit that controls OpenAI) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announced agreement between Elon Musk and OpenAI will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

An agreement to merge with an entity led by Elon Musk will count toward "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Elon Musk, Sam Altman, and/or OpenAI however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Elon Musk buy OpenAI in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be publicly announced and transferable on a blockchain. 

The resolution source will be public announcements from OpenAI.


Will OpenAI launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Conrad Kramer ceases any employment or formal contractual involvement with OpenAI, for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes any termination, suspension, or withdrawal of his contractual or partnership obligations with OpenAI.

An official announcement of Conrad’s departure from OpenAI (e.g., a statement from OpenAI or Conrad indicating he will no longer be engaged with OpenAI) will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure takes effect.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Conrad Kramer leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ari Weinstein ceases any employment or formal contractual involvement with OpenAI, for any length of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes any termination, suspension, or withdrawal of his contractual or partnership obligations with OpenAI.

An official announcement of Ari’s departure from OpenAI (e.g., a statement from OpenAI or Ari indicating he will no longer be engaged with OpenAI) will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure takes effect.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI achieves a public valuation of $1 trillion USD or more, or raises a private funding round that values the company at $1 trillion or more between June 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by OpenAI or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. 

The resolution source will be OpenAI’s official communications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Altman serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Sam Altman in jail by June 30?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.

OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.

Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.

If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.

If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will 

The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.

OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Artificial Intelligence is named TIME's Person of 2025
- GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- AI wins IMO gold medal
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark
- AI scores ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If resolution-relevant information regarding the events mentioned above is not available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If by that date there is still no clear information indicating that one of the listed events has occurred,  this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI2.png

Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

OpenAI Chief Financial Officer Sarah Friar recently suggested that OpenAI would be supportive of a government backstop for its investments in AI infrastructure including chips and data centers. Friar and Open AI Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman later backtracked on that statement. You can read more about that here: https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/06/tech/openai-backtracks-government-support-chip-investments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI or any financial lender or intermediary involved in providing debt financing to OpenAI receives a U.S. federal government backstop for any debt-transaction undertaken primarily for the benefit of OpenAI’s investments in AI infrastructure by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A backstop is defined as any explicit or legally binding loan guarantee, insurance, or equivalent financial instrument through which the U.S. federal government assumes or commits to assume partial or full repayment risk on OpenAI debt.

Tax credits, depreciation benefits, or grants not tied to a specific debt transaction will not qualify. 

The debt transaction which receives a government backstop must be primarily aimed at the development, building, or manufacturing of AI infrastructure. 

The primary source of resolution will be information from Open AI and the United States Federal Government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

OpenAI receives federal backstop for infrastructure before July?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple publicly announces a partnership with either OpenAI or Anthropic to use their AI models (such as ChatGPT or Claude) for enhancing or powering Siri on Apple devices by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The partnership must directly address Siri or voice assistant integration. General AI partnerships unrelated to Siri or non-specific mentions will not count.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Apple Siri partnership with OpenAI/Anthropic by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk ceases to be CEO of Tesla for any length of time between March 12, and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Elon Musk's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla and/or Elon Musk, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Musk out as Tesla CEO in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that the Chrome web browser will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with OpenAI by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by Google/Alphabet will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition or merger actually occurs.

Partnerships, integrations, licensing deals, or other forms of collaboration between Chrome and OpenAI that do not constitute an acquisition or merger will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google/Alphabet, or OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will OpenAI acquire Chrome by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is officially announced that xAI will be, has been, or is being acquired by or merged with Tesla (Tesla inc.) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement by xAI will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced acquisition/merger actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tesla or xAI, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Tesla acquire xAI in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI integrates advertisements into ChatGPT, GPT-4, GPT-4.1, GPT-5, or any successor general-purpose GPT model made publicly available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Limited advertisement releases restricted to a specific region, model, or user group will qualify. The release must be publicly announced as accessible to the relevant users. Closed betas or fully private testing do not count.

Once implemented, the market will resolve to “Yes” immediately, regardless of whether the integration is later removed.

An announcement will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes"; only the release of the advertisement integration will trigger a "Yes" resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

GPT ads by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if David Baszucki ceases to be CEO of Roblox for any length of time between August 14, and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of David Baszucki's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Roblox and/or David Baszucki, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


David Baszucki out as Roblox CEO in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI integrates in-UI advertisements for companies or features not owned by OpenAI into Atlas, its web browser, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Limited advertisement releases restricted to a specific region, version, or user group will qualify. The release must be publicly announced as accessible to the relevant users. Closed betas or fully private testing do not count.

Once implemented, the market will resolve to “Yes” immediately, regardless of whether the integration is later removed.

An announcement will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes"; only the release of the specified advertisement integration will trigger a "Yes" resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Atlas introduce ads by December 31?

This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".

Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a state-of-the-art (SOTA) AI model achieves a score of 90% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed modeI ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.


Will Anthropic have a #1 AI model this year?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire Anthropic by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where Anthropic is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between Anthropic and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Anthropic and/or its leadership, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Anthropic acquired in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk (@elonmusk) changes his X profile picture by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's X account: https://x.com/elonmusk

For an example of what Elon Musk's X pfp was at the time of this market's inception, see this link: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/elonmuskpfp11072025.png


Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by a Chinese company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If a Chinese AI model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025? 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if USD.AI officially launches a governance token by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from USD.AI (https://x.com/USDai_Official), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Atlas, the web browser by OpenAI, has a native iOS application publicly available for download in the U.S. by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The application must be officially released by OpenAI or through official Atlas communication channels.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Atlas have an iOS app live by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.

GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?

This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the successor to Elon Musk as CEO of Tesla by December 31, 2025. 

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of Tesla.

The resolution source will be public statements from Tesla.

Will no CEO be announced in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sentient officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Sentient (https://www.sentient.xyz/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Sentient launch a token in 2025?

Sam Bankman-Fried is tweeting again (https://x.com/SBF_FTX/status/1970633704323362904).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Sam Bankman-Fried  to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

SBF released from custody in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a bill that includes at least one of the following provisions is signed into federal law in the United States  by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 

- Prohibition on Creation or Release: Forbids the creation or release of specific AI systems or models.

- Training Restrictions: Sets limits on how AI systems can be trained, such as restricting access to previously available training data or imposing a maximum limit on the number of parameters used for training.

- Usage Restrictions:  Prevents AI systems from being used in certain applications, such as interacting with customers, interfacing with other applications, or performing actions on the web.

- Human-in-the-Loop Requirements: Requires AI systems to include mechanisms ensuring human oversight or involvement in their operation.

Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source will be official U.S. federal government (e.g., Congress.gov) however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

U.S. enacts AI safety bill in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Yann LeCun ceases any employment or formal contractual involvement with Meta, for any length of time between June 30, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes any termination, suspension, or withdrawal of his contractual or partnership obligations with Meta.

An official announcement of Yann LeCun’s departure from Meta (e.g., a statement from Meta or LeCun indicating he will no longer be engaged with Meta) will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure takes effect.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Will Yann LeCun leave Meta this year?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto

If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.




Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is any rank other than #1 on the Bloomberg Billionaires Index at any point between June 30, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the Bloomberg Billionaires Index (https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/). If this source becomes permanently unavailable in that time period, the Forbes Real-Time Billionaires List will be used (https://www.forbes.com/real-time-billionaires/#6aa3f0213d78). If both sources become permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?

Keith O'Brien, a man accused of being a corporate spy for the software firm Deel, recently stated that he was acting under the direct orders of CEO Alex Bouaziz. You can read more about that here: https://fortune.com/2025/04/02/alleged-deel-spy-court-filing-admits-passing-information-rippling-hr-scandal/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Alex Bouaziz serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between April 2, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Deel CEO jailed in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abstract officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Abstract, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Abstract launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Atlas, the web browser by OpenAI, has a native Windows desktop application publicly available for download in the U.S. by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The application must be officially released by OpenAI or through official Atlas communication channels.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Atlas have a Windows app live by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if credible reporting confirms that any entity enters into an agreement to acquire Snapchat by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Mergers where Snapchat is subsumed by another entity will count toward a "Yes" resolution.

An announced agreement between Snapchat and an acquiring entity will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the acquisition is ultimately completed.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from Snapchat and/or its leadership, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Snapchat acquired in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any AI gets a gold medal in the International Math Olympiad by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source is the IMO Grand Challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/) and the Artificial Intelligence Math Olympiad (AIMO, https://aimoprize.com/). If either source demonstrates that an AI has won the challenge/prize before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes".

AI wins IMO gold medal in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Shaun Maguire ceases any employment or formal contractual involvement with Sequoia Capital for any length of time between July 7, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This includes any termination, or withdrawal of his contractual or partnership obligations with Sequoia Capital.

An official announcement of Shaun Maguire’s departure from Sequoia Capital (e.g., a statement from Sequoia or Maguire indicating he will no longer be engaged with Sequoia) will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure takes effect.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Shaun Maguire out at Sequoia in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @TheRoaringKitty posts between July 23, 10:40 AM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, all quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but reposts will not count.

The resolution source for this market will be Roaring Kitty's verified X account: https://x.com/TheRoaringKitty.

Please note, only the @TheRoaringKitty verified X account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Roaring Kitty posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Sam back as CEO of OpenAI?

Market Context

Sam back as CEO of OpenAI?

Rules

Sam back as CEO of OpenAI?

Market Context

Sam back as CEO of OpenAI?

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