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Politics·Gov Shutdown

Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?

Market icon
Politics·Gov Shutdown

Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 30

Mar 31

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 30

Mar 31

56% chance
Polymarket
NEW
56% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 500 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".Trader consensus prices "Yes" at 56.5% for over 500 US flight cancellations on March 31, driven by persistent severe weather forecasts from the FAA—high winds in New York and Philadelphia airports alongside thunderstorms in Chicago and Indianapolis—compounding spring break peak demand. A prolonged partial DHS shutdown, now over 40 days amid congressional gridlock on funding, has triggered TSA agent sickouts and resignations, creating security bottlenecks and prompting preemptive airline cancellations, as seen in recent days with 261 cancellations on March 27 and chaos at Las Vegas and LaGuardia. FAA ground stops in the DC area from air traffic control equipment failures further heighten risks, though resolution hinges on weather patterns and any last-minute funding bill before the weekend.

Trader consensus prices "Yes" at 56.5% for over 500 US flight cancellations on March 31, driven by persistent severe weather forecasts from the FAA—high winds in New York and Philadelphia airports alongside thunderstorms in Chicago and Indianapolis—compounding spring break peak demand. A prolonged partial DHS shutdown, now over 40 days amid congressional gridlock on funding, has triggered TSA agent sickouts and resignations, creating security bottlenecks and prompting preemptive airline cancellations, as seen in recent days with 261 cancellations on March 27 and chaos at Las Vegas and LaGuardia. FAA ground stops in the DC area from air traffic control equipment failures further heighten risks, though resolution hinges on weather patterns and any last-minute funding bill before the weekend.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 500 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".Trader consensus prices "Yes" at 56.5% for over 500 US flight cancellations on March 31, driven by persistent severe weather forecasts from the FAA—high winds in New York and Philadelphia airports alongside thunderstorms in Chicago and Indianapolis—compounding spring break peak demand. A prolonged partial DHS shutdown, now over 40 days amid congressional gridlock on funding, has triggered TSA agent sickouts and resignations, creating security bottlenecks and prompting preemptive airline cancellations, as seen in recent days with 261 cancellations on March 27 and chaos at Las Vegas and LaGuardia. FAA ground stops in the DC area from air traffic control equipment failures further heighten risks, though resolution hinges on weather patterns and any last-minute funding bill before the weekend.

Trader consensus prices "Yes" at 56.5% for over 500 US flight cancellations on March 31, driven by persistent severe weather forecasts from the FAA—high winds in New York and Philadelphia airports alongside thunderstorms in Chicago and Indianapolis—compounding spring break peak demand. A prolonged partial DHS shutdown, now over 40 days amid congressional gridlock on funding, has triggered TSA agent sickouts and resignations, creating security bottlenecks and prompting preemptive airline cancellations, as seen in recent days with 261 cancellations on March 27 and chaos at Las Vegas and LaGuardia. FAA ground stops in the DC area from air traffic control equipment failures further heighten risks, though resolution hinges on weather patterns and any last-minute funding bill before the weekend.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 56% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 56¢, the market collectively assigns a 56% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?" is 56% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 56% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 31?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.