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Politics·Airport

Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 28?

Market icon
Politics·Airport

Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 28?

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 30

Mar 31

Mar 28

Mar 29

Mar 30

Mar 31

<1% chance
Polymarket

$759 Vol.

<1% chance
Polymarket

$759 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 500 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 28, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".FlightAware data recorded approximately 223 US flight cancellations on March 28—primarily from minor weather impacts like freezing showers at LaGuardia, high winds in the Northeast, and isolated thunderstorms near Chicago—far below the 500 threshold, anchoring trader consensus at 83.5% for "No." This contrasts sharply with mid-March's Winter Storm Iona, which disrupted thousands of flights across major hubs like O'Hare and Atlanta. FAA daily air traffic reports flagged potential delays at New York, Philadelphia, and San Diego but no ground stops or widespread issues amid spring break demand. With the trading day complete, the market awaits final FlightAware verification at noon ET on March 29 to resolve, barring any late adjustments.

FlightAware data recorded approximately 223 US flight cancellations on March 28—primarily from minor weather impacts like freezing showers at LaGuardia, high winds in the Northeast, and isolated thunderstorms near Chicago—far below the 500 threshold, anchoring trader consensus at 83.5% for "No." This contrasts sharply with mid-March's Winter Storm Iona, which disrupted thousands of flights across major hubs like O'Hare and Atlanta. FAA daily air traffic reports flagged potential delays at New York, Philadelphia, and San Diego but no ground stops or widespread issues amid spring break demand. With the trading day complete, the market awaits final FlightAware verification at noon ET on March 29 to resolve, barring any late adjustments.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on FlightAware is greater than 500 when it is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the day after March 28, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is https://www.flightaware.com/live/cancelled/yesterday, specifically the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States yesterday" figure on the "FlightAware.com live flight delay and cancellation statistics for yesterday" table when checked at the specified time. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, or is otherwise unavailable at the resolution time up until 6 PM ET on that date, market will resolve to "No".FlightAware data recorded approximately 223 US flight cancellations on March 28—primarily from minor weather impacts like freezing showers at LaGuardia, high winds in the Northeast, and isolated thunderstorms near Chicago—far below the 500 threshold, anchoring trader consensus at 83.5% for "No." This contrasts sharply with mid-March's Winter Storm Iona, which disrupted thousands of flights across major hubs like O'Hare and Atlanta. FAA daily air traffic reports flagged potential delays at New York, Philadelphia, and San Diego but no ground stops or widespread issues amid spring break demand. With the trading day complete, the market awaits final FlightAware verification at noon ET on March 29 to resolve, barring any late adjustments.

FlightAware data recorded approximately 223 US flight cancellations on March 28—primarily from minor weather impacts like freezing showers at LaGuardia, high winds in the Northeast, and isolated thunderstorms near Chicago—far below the 500 threshold, anchoring trader consensus at 83.5% for "No." This contrasts sharply with mid-March's Winter Storm Iona, which disrupted thousands of flights across major hubs like O'Hare and Atlanta. FAA daily air traffic reports flagged potential delays at New York, Philadelphia, and San Diego but no ground stops or widespread issues amid spring break demand. With the trading day complete, the market awaits final FlightAware verification at noon ET on March 29 to resolve, barring any late adjustments.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 28?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 7% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 7¢, the market collectively assigns a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 28?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Mar 27, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 28?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 28?" is 7% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Over 500 US flights cancelled on March 28?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.