OH-09 Republican Primary Winner

Name: OH-09 Republican Primary Winner
Start: 2026-01-21T15:19:47.302Z
End: 2026-05-05T00:00:00.000Z

Politics·ICE

OH-09 Republican Primary Winner

Alea Nadeem 24.0%

Jacob Frost 19.1%

Madison Sheahan 19%

Josh Williams 18.4%

NEW

May 5, 2026

Alea Nadeem

$589 Vol.

23%

Jacob Frost

$0 Vol.

19%

Madison Sheahan

$1,393 Vol.

19%

Josh Williams

$0 Vol.

21%

Anthony Campbell

$0 Vol.

Wayne Kinsel

$0 Vol.

22%

Derek Merrin

$0 Vol.

41%

Alea Nadeem 24.0%

Jacob Frost 19.1%

Madison Sheahan 19%

Josh Williams 18.4%

NEW

May 5, 2026

Alea Nadeem

$589 Vol.

23%

Jacob Frost

$0 Vol.

19%

Madison Sheahan

$1,393 Vol.

19%

Josh Williams

$0 Vol.

21%

Anthony Campbell

$0 Vol.

Wayne Kinsel

$0 Vol.

22%

Derek Merrin

$0 Vol.

41%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the OH-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 5, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Derek Merrin's status as Ohio House Republican Leader, combined with a 29% lead in the February Buckeye State Poll and top fundraising exceeding $300,000, drives his 41% trader consensus as frontrunner in the OH-09 GOP primary. Recent state party endorsements and candidate forums have solidified his edge ahead of the March 19 contest against Democratic incumbent Marcy Kaptur. Alea Nadeem's 24% share stems from her business outsider profile and self-funding, while Jacob Frost's 22% reflects attorney credentials and conservative backing; Madison Sheahan at 19% benefits from activist networks. Early voting data and final debate momentum are key catalysts shaping these probabilities.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 19, 2026, 12:21 AM UTC

Will Thomas Chalifoux be the Republican nominee for FL-09?

59%

Will Ron Eller be the Republican Nominee for MS-02?

94%

Will the Democratic Party win the OH-09 House seat?

66%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"OH-09 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Derek Merrin" at 41%, followed by "Alea Nadeem" at 23%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 41¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"OH-09 Republican Primary Winner" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 21, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "OH-09 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "OH-09 Republican Primary Winner" is "Derek Merrin" at 41%, meaning the market assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Alea Nadeem" at 23%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "OH-09 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "OH-09 Republican Primary Winner." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “OH-09 Republican Primary Winner” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "OH-09 Republican Primary Winner," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 41¢ for "Derek Merrin" in the "OH-09 Republican Primary Winner" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 41% chance that "Derek Merrin" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 41¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 59¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "OH-09 Republican Primary Winner" market is scheduled to resolve on or around May 5, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "OH-09 Republican Primary Winner" market has a growing discussion of 2 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "OH-09 Republican Primary Winner." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

OH-09 Republican Primary Winner

OH-09 Republican Primary Winner

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Market Context

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Comments (2)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

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