Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Name: Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
Start: 2025-12-01T18:01:15.356Z
End: 2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z

Climate & Science·Pandemics

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

4,558 cases

Mar 31

Dec 31

Mar 31

Dec 31

$7,354,105 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026

↑2k

$33,474 Vol.

98%

↑3k

$22,618 Vol.

86%

↑4k

$75,963 Vol.

65%

↑5k

$166,826 Vol.

39%

↑7.5k

$116,558 Vol.

22%

↑10k

$6,465,084 Vol.

13%

↑12.5k

$298,819 Vol.

13%

$7,354,105 Vol.

↑2k

$33,474 Vol.

98%

↑3k

$22,618 Vol.

86%

↑4k

$75,963 Vol.

65%

↑5k

$166,826 Vol.

39%

↑7.5k

$116,558 Vol.

22%

↑10k

$6,465,084 Vol.

13%

↑12.5k

$298,819 Vol.

13%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Trader sentiment for U.S. measles cases in 2026 leans toward elevated risk, propelled by 2024's record 1,288 confirmed cases—the highest since measles elimination in 2000—spanning 27 jurisdictions per CDC data, with most linked to unvaccinated travelers from endemic regions. Early 2025 reports show persistent clusters, like Texas's outbreak exceeding 500 cases, underscoring pockets of vaccination coverage below the 95% herd immunity threshold needed to curb the virus's R0 of 12-18. MMR vaccine efficacy remains 97% with two doses, but declining childhood immunization rates post-COVID amplify outbreak potential. Key watches include CDC's weekly surveillance updates and state-level school mandates, which could sway trajectories before 2026 resolution.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated Mar 21, 2026, 1:09 AM UTC

Nipah virus in US by March 31?

New COVID variant of concern before 2027?

12%

US recession by end of 2026?

35%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↑500" at 100%, followed by "↑1k" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?" has generated $7.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 1, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?" is "↑500" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "↑1k" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $7.4 million traded on “Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 100¢ for "↑500" in the "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 100% chance that "↑500" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 100¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 0¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Dec 31, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?" market has an active community of 841 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

Rules

Market Context

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Comments (841)

Top Holders

Positions

Activity

Frequently Asked Questions

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