Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 36.5% implied probability for Ankara's highest temperature reaching exactly 14°C on April 5, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble mean forecasts hovering around 13°C, corroborated by Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance. Persistent scattered cloud cover and potential isolated thunderstorms, as indicated in recent 12-hour model runs, cap intensification potential while ruling out extremes, with spreads tightening to 13–16°C amid light southerly steering patterns. Early April climatology in Ankara typically features highs of 14–16°C under variable continental conditions, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists ahead of 00z updates expected overnight. Resolution hinges on official MGM observations at Esenboğa Airport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedHighest temperature in Ankara on April 5?
Highest temperature in Ankara on April 5?
14°C 38%
15°C 21%
16°C 21%
13°C 16%
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
2%
12°C
3%
13°C
16%
14°C
38%
15°C
21%
16°C
21%
17°C or higher
10%
14°C 38%
15°C 21%
16°C 21%
13°C 16%
7°C or below
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
2%
12°C
3%
13°C
16%
14°C
38%
15°C
21%
16°C
21%
17°C or higher
10%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 1, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 36.5% implied probability for Ankara's highest temperature reaching exactly 14°C on April 5, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble mean forecasts hovering around 13°C, corroborated by Turkish State Meteorological Service (MGM) guidance. Persistent scattered cloud cover and potential isolated thunderstorms, as indicated in recent 12-hour model runs, cap intensification potential while ruling out extremes, with spreads tightening to 13–16°C amid light southerly steering patterns. Early April climatology in Ankara typically features highs of 14–16°C under variable continental conditions, though inherent forecast uncertainty persists ahead of 00z updates expected overnight. Resolution hinges on official MGM observations at Esenboğa Airport.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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