Spain enters FIFA World Cup 2026 Group H as the resounding trader consensus favorite at 82% implied probability to win the group, bolstered by Luis de la Fuente's unbeaten qualification campaign, Euro 2024 triumph, and dominant March friendlies including a 3-0 victory over Serbia where Lamine Yamal and Rodri excelled, with the squad now fully fit including Pedri's return. Uruguay holds steady at 15% on Marcelo Bielsa's tactical grit, two-time World Cup champion pedigree, and CONMEBOL qualifier strength, though recent injuries like Joaquín Piquerez's ligament tear and Darwin Núñez's knock introduce uncertainty. Saudi Arabia's 2.5% reflects upset potential from their 2022 Argentina shock but middling recent form, while Cape Verde's historic debut at 1.1% underscores their compact 4-2-3-1 resilience against superior opposition in the June 15-26 group stage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSpain 82%
Uruguay 15%
Saudi Arabia 2.5%
Cape Verde 1.0%
$163,016 Vol.
$163,016 Vol.
Spain
82%
Uruguay
15%
Saudi Arabia
2%
Cape Verde
1%
Spain 82%
Uruguay 15%
Saudi Arabia 2.5%
Cape Verde 1.0%
$163,016 Vol.
$163,016 Vol.
Spain
82%
Uruguay
15%
Saudi Arabia
2%
Cape Verde
1%
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 5, 2025, 7:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain enters FIFA World Cup 2026 Group H as the resounding trader consensus favorite at 82% implied probability to win the group, bolstered by Luis de la Fuente's unbeaten qualification campaign, Euro 2024 triumph, and dominant March friendlies including a 3-0 victory over Serbia where Lamine Yamal and Rodri excelled, with the squad now fully fit including Pedri's return. Uruguay holds steady at 15% on Marcelo Bielsa's tactical grit, two-time World Cup champion pedigree, and CONMEBOL qualifier strength, though recent injuries like Joaquín Piquerez's ligament tear and Darwin Núñez's knock introduce uncertainty. Saudi Arabia's 2.5% reflects upset potential from their 2022 Argentina shock but middling recent form, while Cape Verde's historic debut at 1.1% underscores their compact 4-2-3-1 resilience against superior opposition in the June 15-26 group stage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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