Spain enters the 2026 FIFA World Cup as the consensus Group H favorite at 79.5% implied probability, reflecting its FIFA world ranking of No. 1, Euro 2024 title, and strong recent form that includes a 3-0 March friendly win over Serbia with Rodri returning from long-term injury. Trader positioning also factors in La Roja’s technical control under Luis de la Fuente, deep squad options, and favorable schedule featuring matches against lower-ranked sides in Atlanta and Houston. Uruguay holds second at 16.5% on the strength of its CONMEBOL pedigree and physical style suited to the Guadalajara showdown on June 26, though transitional elements and modest recent results cap expectations. Saudi Arabia and debutants Cape Verde sit at 2.8% and 1.1%, limited by lower rankings and limited elite-level results heading into the June 15-26 group stage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSpain 80%
Uruguay 17%
Saudi Arabia 2.8%
Cape Verde 1.0%
$174,814 Vol.
$174,814 Vol.
Spain
80%
Uruguay
17%
Saudi Arabia
3%
Cape Verde
1%
Spain 80%
Uruguay 17%
Saudi Arabia 2.8%
Cape Verde 1.0%
$174,814 Vol.
$174,814 Vol.
Spain
80%
Uruguay
17%
Saudi Arabia
3%
Cape Verde
1%
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Dec 5, 2025, 7:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Spain enters the 2026 FIFA World Cup as the consensus Group H favorite at 79.5% implied probability, reflecting its FIFA world ranking of No. 1, Euro 2024 title, and strong recent form that includes a 3-0 March friendly win over Serbia with Rodri returning from long-term injury. Trader positioning also factors in La Roja’s technical control under Luis de la Fuente, deep squad options, and favorable schedule featuring matches against lower-ranked sides in Atlanta and Houston. Uruguay holds second at 16.5% on the strength of its CONMEBOL pedigree and physical style suited to the Guadalajara showdown on June 26, though transitional elements and modest recent results cap expectations. Saudi Arabia and debutants Cape Verde sit at 2.8% and 1.1%, limited by lower rankings and limited elite-level results heading into the June 15-26 group stage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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