**The 97.2% market-implied probability of “No” for 2026 FDA approval of retatrutide stems primarily from Eli Lilly’s confirmed timeline: the company has not submitted a Biologics License Application and plans to file only in Q1 2027 after completing its chemistry, manufacturing, and controls package.** Multiple Phase 3 TRIUMPH trials have delivered strong efficacy data, with mean weight reductions reaching 20.8–22.6% at the highest doses over 80 weeks in adults with obesity, type 2 diabetes, or cardiovascular disease, alongside A1C improvements. These results support the drug’s triple-agonist mechanism (GIP/GLP-1/glucagon) but cannot trigger approval without a formal filing and subsequent FDA review, which typically requires 6–10 months after acceptance. No accelerated pathway or priority voucher has been indicated, and the remaining weeks of 2026 offer no realistic window for submission, review, or decision. The consensus reflects this fixed regulatory sequence rather than doubts about clinical performance.