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Eurovision 2026: Second Semi-Final

Market icon

Eurovision 2026: Second Semi-Final

NEW
May 14, 2026
Polymarket

$5,408 Vol.

Polymarket
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Denmark

$293 Vol.

95%

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Australia

$0 Vol.

92%

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Ukraine

$960 Vol.

90%

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Bulgaria

$0 Vol.

83%

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Malta

$0 Vol.

80%

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Romania

$0 Vol.

76%

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Cyprus

$0 Vol.

76%

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Albania

$0 Vol.

71%

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Czechia

$0 Vol.

71%

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Norway

$0 Vol.

61%

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Latvia

$438 Vol.

55%

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Luxembourg

$3,717 Vol.

50%

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Switzerland

$0 Vol.

39%

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Armenia

$0 Vol.

39%

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Azerbaijan

$0 Vol.

13%

This market will resolve to the countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Trader consensus for Eurovision 2026's Second Semi-Final remains fluid and speculative, as no participating countries or songs have been confirmed yet—national selections typically kick off in late fall for the following year's contest. The host nation and semi-final draw will hinge on the Eurovision 2025 winner in Basel, Switzerland (May 2025), with the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) overseeing allocations based on voting history to balance pots. Key upcoming catalysts include early national final announcements from powerhouses like Sweden, Ukraine, or Italy, plus any host city bids post-2025. Historical patterns show strong incumbents (e.g., recent top-10 nations) gaining early momentum in prediction markets, but upsets from debutants or revamped acts often shift odds rapidly as previews emerge.

This market will resolve to the countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Volume
$5,408
End Date
May 14, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 16, 2026, 12:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to the countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Trader consensus for Eurovision 2026's Second Semi-Final remains fluid and speculative, as no participating countries or songs have been confirmed yet—national selections typically kick off in late fall for the following year's contest. The host nation and semi-final draw will hinge on the Eurovision 2025 winner in Basel, Switzerland (May 2025), with the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) overseeing allocations based on voting history to balance pots. Key upcoming catalysts include early national final announcements from powerhouses like Sweden, Ukraine, or Italy, plus any host city bids post-2025. Historical patterns show strong incumbents (e.g., recent top-10 nations) gaining early momentum in prediction markets, but upsets from debutants or revamped acts often shift odds rapidly as previews emerge.

Trader consensus for Eurovision 2026's Second Semi-Final remains fluid and speculative, as no participating countries or songs have been confirmed yet—national selections typically kick off in late fall for the following year's contest. The host nation and semi-final draw will hinge on the Eurovision 2025 winner in Basel, Switzerland (May 2025), with the European Broadcasting Union (EBU) overseeing allocations based on voting history to balance pots. Key upcoming catalysts include early national final announcements from powerhouses like Sweden, Ukraine, or Italy, plus any host city bids post-2025. Historical patterns show strong incumbents (e.g., recent top-10 nations) gaining early momentum in prediction markets, but upsets from debutants or revamped acts often shift odds rapidly as previews emerge.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Eurovision 2026: Second Semi-Final" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Denmark" at 95%, followed by "Australia" at 92%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 95¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Eurovision 2026: Second Semi-Final" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jan 16, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Eurovision 2026: Second Semi-Final," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eurovision 2026: Second Semi-Final" is "Denmark" at 95%, meaning the market assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Australia" at 92%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eurovision 2026: Second Semi-Final" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.