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Eurovision 2026: Second Semi-Final

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Eurovision 2026: Second Semi-Final

$235,278 Vol.

May 14, 2026
Polymarket

$235,278 Vol.

Polymarket
Will Ukraine advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? icon

Ukraine

$1,657 Vol.

95%

Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? icon

Australia

$11,862 Vol.

93%

Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? icon

Denmark

$714 Vol.

93%

Will Romania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? icon

Romania

$7,280 Vol.

83%

Will Bulgaria advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? icon

Bulgaria

$6,005 Vol.

83%

Will Cyprus advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? icon

Cyprus

$17,121 Vol.

81%

Will Malta advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? icon

Malta

$15,738 Vol.

75%

Will Czechia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? icon

Czechia

$35,090 Vol.

71%

Will Norway advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? icon

Norway

$4,932 Vol.

69%

Will Albania advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? icon

Albania

$18,818 Vol.

59%

Will Latvia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? icon

Latvia

$1,236 Vol.

53%

Will Switzerland advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? icon

Switzerland

$74,454 Vol.

44%

Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? icon

Luxembourg

$22,275 Vol.

37%

Will Armenia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? icon

Armenia

$12,186 Vol.

35%

Will Azerbaijan advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? icon

Azerbaijan

$5,910 Vol.

11%

This market will resolve to the countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Ukraine (95%), Australia (93%), and Denmark (93%) to qualify from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final on May 14 at Vienna's Wiener Stadthalle, driven by Leléka's diaspora-boosted "Ridnym," Delta Goodrem's powerhouse "Eclipse," and Søren Torpegaard Lund's emotive ballad "Før vi går hjem." The April 2 running order reveal—opening with Bulgaria's Dara and closing with Norway's Jonas Lovv—has solidified these frontrunners amid stable bookie odds, while Azerbaijan lags at 10% due to weaker reception. With first rehearsals imminent and juries returning alongside televote, upsets remain possible in this 15-entry field where top 10 advance to the May 16 Grand Final.

This market will resolve to the countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Volume
$235,278
End Date
May 14, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 16, 2026, 12:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to the countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
This market will resolve to the countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors Ukraine (95%), Australia (93%), and Denmark (93%) to qualify from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final on May 14 at Vienna's Wiener Stadthalle, driven by Leléka's diaspora-boosted "Ridnym," Delta Goodrem's powerhouse "Eclipse," and Søren Torpegaard Lund's emotive ballad "Før vi går hjem." The April 2 running order reveal—opening with Bulgaria's Dara and closing with Norway's Jonas Lovv—has solidified these frontrunners amid stable bookie odds, while Azerbaijan lags at 10% due to weaker reception. With first rehearsals imminent and juries returning alongside televote, upsets remain possible in this 15-entry field where top 10 advance to the May 16 Grand Final.

This market will resolve to the countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Volume
$235,278
End Date
May 14, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 16, 2026, 12:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to the countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Eurovision 2026: Second Semi-Final" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Ukraine" at 95%, followed by "Australia" at 93%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 95¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Eurovision 2026: Second Semi-Final" has generated $235.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Eurovision 2026: Second Semi-Final," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eurovision 2026: Second Semi-Final" is "Ukraine" at 95%, meaning the market assigns a 95% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Australia" at 93%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eurovision 2026: Second Semi-Final" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.