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Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final

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Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final

$415,853 Vol.

May 12, 2026
Polymarket

$415,853 Vol.

Polymarket
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Finland

$328,625 Vol.

98%

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Sweden

$1,540 Vol.

95%

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Greece

$4,130 Vol.

94%

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Israel

$19,567 Vol.

93%

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Moldova

$1,439 Vol.

85%

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Serbia

$1,452 Vol.

78%

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Croatia

$3,605 Vol.

76%

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Lithuania

$2,591 Vol.

69%

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Poland

$7,240 Vol.

53%

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Belgium

$6,233 Vol.

51%

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Georgia

$166 Vol.

50%

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Montenegro

$1,414 Vol.

54%

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Portugal

$30,880 Vol.

32%

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Estonia

$1,848 Vol.

23%

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San Marino

$5,122 Vol.

12%

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.The recent running order reveal for Eurovision 2026's First Semi-Final on May 12 at Vienna's Wiener Stadthalle—featuring Moldova opening with Satoshi's upbeat "Viva, Moldova!", Sweden's Felicia close behind with "My System", and standouts like Finland's "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen—has intensified trader consensus on Nordic and Balkan frontrunners, bolstered by strong national final wins and fresh song releases such as Georgia's Bzikebi "On Replay". With 15 entrants vying for 10 qualification spots via split jury-televote scoring, historical powerhouses like Sweden (consistent qualifiers) and Greece hold edge, though live staging previews from imminent rehearsals could spark upsets amid bloc voting dynamics and fan campaigns. Conditions remain fluid ahead of jury shows.

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Volume
$415,853
End Date
May 12, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 16, 2026, 12:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.The recent running order reveal for Eurovision 2026's First Semi-Final on May 12 at Vienna's Wiener Stadthalle—featuring Moldova opening with Satoshi's upbeat "Viva, Moldova!", Sweden's Felicia close behind with "My System", and standouts like Finland's "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen—has intensified trader consensus on Nordic and Balkan frontrunners, bolstered by strong national final wins and fresh song releases such as Georgia's Bzikebi "On Replay". With 15 entrants vying for 10 qualification spots via split jury-televote scoring, historical powerhouses like Sweden (consistent qualifiers) and Greece hold edge, though live staging previews from imminent rehearsals could spark upsets amid bloc voting dynamics and fan campaigns. Conditions remain fluid ahead of jury shows.

This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026.

If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".

If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Volume
$415,853
End Date
May 12, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 16, 2026, 12:26 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" for the listed countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision First Semi-Final, scheduled for May 12, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 First Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the First Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Related

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Will Austria come in last place at Eurovision 2026?

20%
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Will Finland be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026?

71%
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Will Finland be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?

89%

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 15 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Finland" at 98%, followed by "Sweden" at 95%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 98¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final" has generated $415.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final," browse the 15 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final" is "Finland" at 98%, meaning the market assigns a 98% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Sweden" at 95%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Eurovision 2026: First Semi-Final" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.