Trader consensus on Polymarket positions 65-89 tweets (38.5% implied probability) as the frontrunner for Elon Musk's X activity from April 2-4, aligning with his recent daily average of around 32 posts tracked over the prior week (March 27-April 1), per XTracker data. The nearby 40-64 range (27.5%) reflects possible moderation during quieter periods, while 90-114 (22.5%) hedges against historical spikes exceeding 60 posts amid controversies. Today's early morning posts—highlighting xAI's visual intelligence video and commentary on California's fiscal woes echoing Chamath Palihapitiya—signal continued steady engagement without major catalysts for deviation. Absent scheduled events like Tesla or SpaceX announcements, traders expect his pattern of real-time news responses and cultural commentary to drive totals in the mid-range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedElon Musk # tweets April 2 - April 4, 2026?
Elon Musk # tweets April 2 - April 4, 2026?
65-89 39%
40-64 28%
90-114 23%
115-139 9%
$274,083 Vol.
$274,083 Vol.
Apr 4, 2026
<40
4%
40-64
28%
65-89
39%
90-114
23%
115-139
9%
140-164
2%
165-189
1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
65-89 39%
40-64 28%
90-114 23%
115-139 9%
$274,083 Vol.
$274,083 Vol.
Apr 4, 2026
<40
$30,548 Vol.
4%
40-64
$17,065 Vol.
28%
65-89
$12,455 Vol.
39%
90-114
$12,475 Vol.
23%
115-139
$16,817 Vol.
9%
140-164
$24,535 Vol.
2%
165-189
$19,762 Vol.
1%
190-214
$26,204 Vol.
<1%
215-239
$54,705 Vol.
<1%
240+
$59,537 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 2 12:00 PM ET to April 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions 65-89 tweets (38.5% implied probability) as the frontrunner for Elon Musk's X activity from April 2-4, aligning with his recent daily average of around 32 posts tracked over the prior week (March 27-April 1), per XTracker data. The nearby 40-64 range (27.5%) reflects possible moderation during quieter periods, while 90-114 (22.5%) hedges against historical spikes exceeding 60 posts amid controversies. Today's early morning posts—highlighting xAI's visual intelligence video and commentary on California's fiscal woes echoing Chamath Palihapitiya—signal continued steady engagement without major catalysts for deviation. Absent scheduled events like Tesla or SpaceX announcements, traders expect his pattern of real-time news responses and cultural commentary to drive totals in the mid-range.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 2 12:00 PM ET to April 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Market Opened: Mar 30, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Volume
$274,083End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 30, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 2 12:00 PM ET to April 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket positions 65-89 tweets (38.5% implied probability) as the frontrunner for Elon Musk's X activity from April 2-4, aligning with his recent daily average of around 32 posts tracked over the prior week (March 27-April 1), per XTracker data. The nearby 40-64 range (27.5%) reflects possible moderation during quieter periods, while 90-114 (22.5%) hedges against historical spikes exceeding 60 posts amid controversies. Today's early morning posts—highlighting xAI's visual intelligence video and commentary on California's fiscal woes echoing Chamath Palihapitiya—signal continued steady engagement without major catalysts for deviation. Absent scheduled events like Tesla or SpaceX announcements, traders expect his pattern of real-time news responses and cultural commentary to drive totals in the mid-range.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 2 12:00 PM ET to April 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Volume
$274,083End Date
Apr 4, 2026Market Opened
Mar 30, 2026, 12:01 PM ETResolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket positions 65-89 tweets (38.5% implied probability) as the frontrunner for Elon Musk's X activity from April 2-4, aligning with his recent daily average of around 32 posts tracked over the prior week (March 27-April 1), per XTracker data. The nearby 40-64 range (27.5%) reflects possible moderation during quieter periods, while 90-114 (22.5%) hedges against historical spikes exceeding 60 posts amid controversies. Today's early morning posts—highlighting xAI's visual intelligence video and commentary on California's fiscal woes echoing Chamath Palihapitiya—signal continued steady engagement without major catalysts for deviation. Absent scheduled events like Tesla or SpaceX announcements, traders expect his pattern of real-time news responses and cultural commentary to drive totals in the mid-range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions